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Italy is overtaking Germany as Europe's economic powerhouse
Deutsche Welle
03 Apr 2024, 21:07
While Germany's economy is stalling, Italy is experiencing continued growth. But this has little to do with PM Giorgia Meloni's economic policies and everything to do with subsidies and new debt.
Mauro Congedo has been finding and renovating small architectural treasures with his brother and father for 25 years in Salento — a peninsula in the southeast of Italy that makes up the "heel" of the country.
The apartments and houses that Congedo restores in this rather remote region are now suddenly finding buyers from Germany and England. "Things are going well again," said the 50-year-old architect.
During the coronavirus pandemic, business almost came to a standstill. But what happened afterward in Italy in the industry was "crazy" he says, dragging out the "a" for a long time. But look deeper and Congedo isn't the only one enthusiastic about the economic recovery in Italy.
Italy goes from problem child to head of the class
While governments in Rome were used to announcing depressing growth forecasts and poor debt rankings in the years before the pandemic, the country is now quickly becoming Europe's growth engine.
In the last quarter, the Italian economy grew by 0.6%, while the German economy shrunk by 0.3% in the same period. Beyond this short three-month snapshot, other figures for Europe's third-largest economy are impressive.
"The Italian economy has grown by 3.8% since 2019," said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. That is "twice as much as the French economy and five times more than the German economy," he told DW.
In Germany, the prospects are indeed looking bleak. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts growth of 0.3% this year for Germany. Leading German experts are only expecting growth of 0.1%. Italy, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, according to the OECD.
The Italian stock market is also benefiting from the optimistic mood. The FTSE MIB benchmark index, which is made up of 40 big companies, rose by around 28% last year, more than any other European stock market indices. Italy is on track for more growth.
Trust in the Italian government is returning
It didn't always look so encouraging. Economists initially reacted very cautiously when Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in October 2022. During the election campaign, Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party announced a nationalist "Made in Italy" economic course, agitated against migrants and did not clearly distance herself from Russia.
After her election, the German weekly Stern described her as the "most dangerous woman in Europe." But in terms of economic policy, Meloni has so far largely remained on the same course as her predecessor Mario Draghi. This course is paying off for Italy, at least on the bond market. The interest rate at which the county borrows money is back to the level before she took office.
At a press conference earlier this year, Meloni tried to take credit for the economic upswing. Above all, the lack of political stability in the past had slowed the economy she said, speaking from a position firmly in the saddle.
But how much of the growth is down to Meloni's success?
"Not much," said Krämer from Commerzbank. "The strong growth can be explained by Italy's loose fiscal policy." That means Italy's growth is based primarily on new debt. While the Italian state's new debt before COVID-19 was 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), it has shot up in recent years and was 8.3% of GDP in the first half of 2023.
The country's overall mountain of debt is growing, too. In January, the EU Commission estimated that it would exceed 140% of GDP this year and continue to rise in 2025. For comparison, in Germany the debt ratio is 66%, in France it is almost 100%.
Huge construction subsidies inject the economy
To help the economy, the Italian state has been funding various home renovation measures since the end of 2020. For some measures they pay around 50% of the cost, others get even more. The most popular is called the "Superbonus 110" for energy-efficient renovations.
Through this program anyone who renovates their house or apartment to make it more energy-efficient will get the entire expenses plus a 10% refund on top through a tax reduction scheme.
"You can imagine that construction investments have skyrocketed," said economist and Italy expert Krämer. "This effect explains two-thirds of the strong growth we are seeing."
The architect Mauro Congedo is not overly enthusiastic about the Superbonus 110 program. Everything has become more expensive. On top of inflation, the program drove up the costs of materials and workers.
"If the state pays for everything, then people don't care how much it costs," said Congedo. In addition, no one controls the prices. Construction companies from Naples, Bari and the provincial capital Lecce asked him several times to adjust his costs upward. "They wanted me to charge twice as much. I didn't do it. It feels like stealing," he said.
He thinks a bonus for the energy-efficient renovation of buildings is a good thing in general. However, owners should have to contribute to the costs and not just get it all from the government. Congedo doesn't think much about Giorgia Meloni either. The only good thing she did was get the Superbonus 110 program under control, he says.
Money from the European Union
In fact, the ultra-right head of government has slowed down the Superbonus program introduced by the left-wing Five Star Movement. In 2023, it covered a maximum 70% of costs and this year up to 65% of the renovation costs.
Nevertheless, the tax credits resulting from the program will significantly reduce government revenue in the next few years. For the government in Rome it is probably very convenient that billions are still flowing — primarily from Brussels. Italy is one of the biggest recipients of the EU's COVID recovery fund.
By 2026, almost €200 billion ($216 billion) will be paid out to Italy in the form of subsidies and loans. "The Italian state must reduce its very high budget deficit by this time at the latest," said Krämer. "If they only start saving then, then this Italian growth miracle will probably end because they didn't use the time for structural reforms."
Mauro Congedo is worried that remnants of the Superbonus 110 program will remain for a long time. "The prices are very high, and we have incurred a lot of debt."
Luckily, he won't run out of work anytime soon. He's currently working on eight projects at the same time.
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World's most expensive cow sold for $4.3 million in Brazil
A Nelore cow named Mara Emovis set a world record in 2023 by selling for an astonishing $4.3 million at an auction in Brazil
Nelore cattle, known for their resilience in hot climates, efficient metabolism, and adaptability to harsh conditions, are highly prized for their genetic attributes and potential to improve the breed as a whole.
The record-breaking sale of Viatina-19 FIV Mara shows the importance of Nelore cattle in Brazil's beef industry and their ability to thrive in the country's challenging environment, making them a valuable asset for the future of the industry.
Turkey: Polls close in Erdogan's 'last election'
Analysts say local elections this Sunday are crucial for Turkey's opposition parties, which are under threat of being utterly sidelined by an increasingly authoritarian regime.
As millions of eligible voters headed to the polls to elect mayors in 81 Turkish cities and municipalities on March 31, it is a historic local election for one person in particular: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has spoken of his "last election" before handing over responsibility to the next generation.
Turkey's constitution obliges Erdogan to step down in four years due to term limits. But an Erdogan loyalist in the Turkish parliament, former Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag, has long teased a constitutional amendment that would allow the head of state to run for another term. And the president's ultranationalist ally Devlet Bahceli has publicly pleaded with Erdogan, telling him: "You cannot leave the Turkish nation alone!"
Erdogan's AKP takes on Ekrem Imamoglu
Erdogan's political career gained momentum when he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994. But it was there, too, that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a major defeat in 2019 local elections.
This year, it hopes to erase that embarrassment. A few weeks ago, Erdogan spoke of "five wasted years." In 2019, a united opposition achieved a historic victory after 25 years and succeeded in taking back 11 cities, including Istanbul and the Turkish capital, Ankara, from the AKP.
Many factors were responsible for the defeat of the ruling party, but one man in particular stood out: Ekrem Imamoglu from the Republican People's Party (CHP), who was elected mayor of Istanbul. His reelection or defeat on March 31 could determine the future of Turkey.
If Imamoglu wins, his chances of running for president in 2028 will significantly increase, predicted Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University. "In my opinion, Imamoglu is the best possible opposition candidate if Erdogan's power machine is to be beaten," he said.
Esen said Imamoglu has the necessary qualities to rally a majority. "He can win the votes of very different population groups. He has the potential to reach conservative, left-wing, Kurdish and even pro-Erdogan voters," he said.
Esen also pointed out that Imamoglu was positioning himself as a direct rival to the president on the campaign trail. "Imamoglu is using these elections to attack Erdogan directly," he said.
In Istanbul, AKP may benefit from divided opposition
But it won't be easy for the anti-AKP camp this Sunday. According to a survey by the Turkish ORC research institute, there are only 1.2 percentage points between Imamoglu and AKP candidate Murat Kurum in Istanbul. The job of Istanbul mayor is of paramount importance for the country as a whole: one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in the metropolitan Istanbul region, and half of Turkey's exports as well as 56% of its imports pass through the megacity.
In the 2023 presidential election, the opposition put forward a joint candidate to face Erdogan but fell short. This time, the three biggest opposition parties — the CHP, the nationalist Good Party (IYI) and the pro-Kurdish DEM — are all presenting their own candidates.
Esen explained that the united opposition front fell apart after Erdogan's victory in the 2023 presidential election, leading to a loss of trust among voters. "In view of this fragmentation and internal struggles among the opposition parties, there is a sense of hopelessness and disenchantment with politics," he said.
When Erdogan was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, it was despite the fact that he had received only around 25% of the vote. His four opponents received 22, 20, 15 and 12%. Today, many fear his party's candidate for Istanbul, Kurum, could likewise benefit from such a divided opposition.
Erdogan's opponents seem unmotivated, said Ulas Tol, director of the CORE Research Institute in Istanbul. "Until 2019, Erdogan's party ruled in the big cities and the opposition's ultimate goal was simply winning elections," he said. "Now, those who don't vote for Erdogan are either emotionally politicized to the extreme or turning away from politics altogether."
Erdogan wants to 'get rid of potential 2028 rivals'
These elections will show, "which direction the authoritarian system in Turkey could develop in the coming years," said political scientist Esen.
"Erdogan wants to use these elections to weaken, or completely get rid of potential 2028 rivals," he said. "If he succeeds, the Turkish opposition will be even less able to compete than it is today. The situation is perhaps not comparable with Russia but with Venezuela: elections are held there regularly, but the opposition has no chance of winning. That's why this election is so important for the [Turkish] opposition."
Italy is overtaking Germany as Europe's economic powerhouse
While Germany's economy is stalling, Italy is experiencing continued growth. But this has little to do with PM Giorgia Meloni's economic policies and everything to do with subsidies and new debt.
Mauro Congedo has been finding and renovating small architectural treasures with his brother and father for 25 years in Salento — a peninsula in the southeast of Italy that makes up the "heel" of the country.
The apartments and houses that Congedo restores in this rather remote region are now suddenly finding buyers from Germany and England. "Things are going well again," said the 50-year-old architect.
During the coronavirus pandemic, business almost came to a standstill. But what happened afterward in Italy in the industry was "crazy" he says, dragging out the "a" for a long time. But look deeper and Congedo isn't the only one enthusiastic about the economic recovery in Italy.
Italy goes from problem child to head of the class
While governments in Rome were used to announcing depressing growth forecasts and poor debt rankings in the years before the pandemic, the country is now quickly becoming Europe's growth engine.
In the last quarter, the Italian economy grew by 0.6%, while the German economy shrunk by 0.3% in the same period. Beyond this short three-month snapshot, other figures for Europe's third-largest economy are impressive.
"The Italian economy has grown by 3.8% since 2019," said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. That is "twice as much as the French economy and five times more than the German economy," he told DW.
In Germany, the prospects are indeed looking bleak. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts growth of 0.3% this year for Germany. Leading German experts are only expecting growth of 0.1%. Italy, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, according to the OECD.
The Italian stock market is also benefiting from the optimistic mood. The FTSE MIB benchmark index, which is made up of 40 big companies, rose by around 28% last year, more than any other European stock market indices. Italy is on track for more growth.
Trust in the Italian government is returning
It didn't always look so encouraging. Economists initially reacted very cautiously when Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in October 2022. During the election campaign, Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party announced a nationalist "Made in Italy" economic course, agitated against migrants and did not clearly distance herself from Russia.
After her election, the German weekly Stern described her as the "most dangerous woman in Europe." But in terms of economic policy, Meloni has so far largely remained on the same course as her predecessor Mario Draghi. This course is paying off for Italy, at least on the bond market. The interest rate at which the county borrows money is back to the level before she took office.
At a press conference earlier this year, Meloni tried to take credit for the economic upswing. Above all, the lack of political stability in the past had slowed the economy she said, speaking from a position firmly in the saddle.
But how much of the growth is down to Meloni's success?
"Not much," said Krämer from Commerzbank. "The strong growth can be explained by Italy's loose fiscal policy." That means Italy's growth is based primarily on new debt. While the Italian state's new debt before COVID-19 was 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), it has shot up in recent years and was 8.3% of GDP in the first half of 2023.
The country's overall mountain of debt is growing, too. In January, the EU Commission estimated that it would exceed 140% of GDP this year and continue to rise in 2025. For comparison, in Germany the debt ratio is 66%, in France it is almost 100%.
Huge construction subsidies inject the economy
To help the economy, the Italian state has been funding various home renovation measures since the end of 2020. For some measures they pay around 50% of the cost, others get even more. The most popular is called the "Superbonus 110" for energy-efficient renovations.
Through this program anyone who renovates their house or apartment to make it more energy-efficient will get the entire expenses plus a 10% refund on top through a tax reduction scheme.
"You can imagine that construction investments have skyrocketed," said economist and Italy expert Krämer. "This effect explains two-thirds of the strong growth we are seeing."
The architect Mauro Congedo is not overly enthusiastic about the Superbonus 110 program. Everything has become more expensive. On top of inflation, the program drove up the costs of materials and workers.
"If the state pays for everything, then people don't care how much it costs," said Congedo. In addition, no one controls the prices. Construction companies from Naples, Bari and the provincial capital Lecce asked him several times to adjust his costs upward. "They wanted me to charge twice as much. I didn't do it. It feels like stealing," he said.
He thinks a bonus for the energy-efficient renovation of buildings is a good thing in general. However, owners should have to contribute to the costs and not just get it all from the government. Congedo doesn't think much about Giorgia Meloni either. The only good thing she did was get the Superbonus 110 program under control, he says.
Money from the European Union
In fact, the ultra-right head of government has slowed down the Superbonus program introduced by the left-wing Five Star Movement. In 2023, it covered a maximum 70% of costs and this year up to 65% of the renovation costs.
Nevertheless, the tax credits resulting from the program will significantly reduce government revenue in the next few years. For the government in Rome it is probably very convenient that billions are still flowing — primarily from Brussels. Italy is one of the biggest recipients of the EU's COVID recovery fund.
By 2026, almost €200 billion ($216 billion) will be paid out to Italy in the form of subsidies and loans. "The Italian state must reduce its very high budget deficit by this time at the latest," said Krämer. "If they only start saving then, then this Italian growth miracle will probably end because they didn't use the time for structural reforms."
Mauro Congedo is worried that remnants of the Superbonus 110 program will remain for a long time. "The prices are very high, and we have incurred a lot of debt."
Luckily, he won't run out of work anytime soon. He's currently working on eight projects at the same time.
Lawmakers urge Biden to call out more Chinese biotech firms
A Republican and a Democratic member of Congress are calling on the Biden administration to add seven Chinese biotech firms to a list created by the Defense Department to highlight firms it says are allegedly working with Beijing's military.
In a letter dated March 29 seen by Reuters, Republican Michael Gallagher and Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to take the action since Beijing could harness the power of biotechnology to strengthen its military.
"Urgent action is needed," said the lawmakers, who serve as the chairman and ranking member of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, citing risks that China could "create synthetic pathogens" to gain military advantage.
"The Department of Defense provides responses directly to members of Congress in matters of this kind," a department spokesman said in a statement. "We have no additional information or further details to release at this time."
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said "some people" in the United States should stop suppressing Chinese companies under false pretexts.
"When it comes to 'using biotech to strengthen its military,' the U.S. side should reflect on itself, rather than groundlessly attacking and smearing China," the spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, said in a statement.
The letter is the latest sign of growing concern in Washington about China's biotech sector.
The U.S. Congress is considering legislation to bar federal agencies from contracting with China's BGI and WuXi AppTec, among others, as part of an effort to keep China from accessing American genetic data and personal health information.
U.S. intelligence officials in late February told senators working on the bill that Chinese pharmaceutical firm WuXi AppTec (603259.SS), opens new tab had transferred U.S. intellectual property to Beijing without consent, Reuters reported.
Being placed on the Pentagon's Chinese military-backed companies list doesn't involve immediate bans. However, it can be a blow to companies' reputations and represents a warning to U.S. firms considering doing business with them. It could also put pressure on the Treasury Department to sanction them.
In their letter, Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi call for the addition of Innomics and STOmics, which they allege are subsidiaries of BGI. BGI Genomics Co (300676.SZ), opens new tab, a publicly listed subsidiary of BGI Group, was added to the list in 2022.
Reuters reported in 2021 that BGI has made sales worldwide of prenatal tests developed in collaboration with China's military and has used them to collect genetic data from millions of women for sweeping research on traits of populations.
BGI has said it is not controlled by the Chinese government or military and that it respects human rights.
The letter also names Origincell, for allegedly operating a bio-storage cell tank and having ties to the Chinese military and Vazyme Biotech (688105.SS), opens new tab, which allegedly makes bioactive compounds and has investors with ties to the military.
"STOmics Americas is a U.S.-based company that has no operations in China nor any connections whatsoever with the Chinese military," the BGI Group said in a statement.
Source: Reuters
Gaza death toll crosses 33,000
The death toll in the Gaza Strip from ongoing Israeli attacks has exceeded 33,000. More than 24,000 women and children were among the dead.
The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip has announced in a statement that the total death toll is about 33,037 and more than 75,668 are injured since the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out on Oct. 7, 2023, reports Al Jazeera on Friday (April 5).
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) released several posts on X on the eve of the Palestinian Child Day stated, "1,000 children have lost either one or both of their legs in Gaza."
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) stated that Israel kills around four children per hour in Gaza.
However, Israel has been launching a large-scale offensive against Hamas in Gaza to retaliate against a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7, 2023. About Two million people in Gaza bocame refugee by Israeli attacks.
US court orders exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui to face fraud indictment
A judge said prosecutors sufficiently alleged that Guo engaged in a pattern of racketeering through four fraud schemes
The businessman is accused of defrauding thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion
A US judge on Tuesday rejected exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui’s bid to dismiss an indictment accusing him of defrauding thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion.
US District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan said prosecutors sufficiently alleged that Guo engaged in a pattern of racketeering through four fraud schemes, and that proving it was a matter for trial.
Lawyers for Guo did not immediately respond to requests for comment after business hours.
Guo has pleaded not guilty to 12 criminal charges that included securities fraud, wire fraud, unlawful monetary transactions and conspiracy, including for money laundering.
According to the indictment, Guo and his accomplices defrauded investors in a media company, cryptocurrency and other ventures.
The indictment said Guo took advantage of his prolific online presence and hundreds of thousands of followers by promising outsize financial returns and other benefits.
In reality, the scheme allowed the co-conspirators to enrich themselves and family members, and fund Guo’s “extravagant lifestyle”, the indictment said.
Two co-defendants face related criminal charges, including one defendant charged with obstruction.
Also known as Ho Wan Kwok and Miles Kwok, Guo is a critic of China’s Communist Party and business associate of former US president Donald Trump’s one-time adviser Steve Bannon.
Guo has been jailed in Brooklyn since his March 2023 arrest, with Torres and a federal appeal court rejecting his proposed US$25 million bail package last year.
Jury selection in his trial is scheduled to begin on May 20.
Prosecutors also sought the forfeiture of various assets including bank accounts, a US$37 million yacht, a New Jersey mansion, a Bugatti, a Lamborghini and a Rolls-Royce.
Guo filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Connecticut in February 2022. That case was later combined with the bankruptcies of other companies he controlled. Torres has twice rejected Guo’s bid to stay the bankruptcy proceedings.
Source: South China Morning Post
Hong Kong's lost freedom shows Xi Jinping's priorities: Analysis
Causeway Bay Books incident was a harbinger of regime's security-first principle.
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.
Is China heading toward a more open economy? Or does it want to prioritize national security? This is probably the most difficult conundrum global investors face when considering today's China.
While the communist regime advocates a "high-standard opening-up" of the economy to achieve a 5% growth target, it is also pushing to realize Chinese-style national security, saying that "political security" and "regime security" take precedence over other policies, including economic ones.
The fact that President Xi Jinping's two close aides are in charge of the economy and security -- two contradictory initiatives -- further confuses the matter. Premier Li Qiang has the economic portfolio while Cai Qi is the security czar.
If there is a clue to understanding the mixed messages, it lies in Hong Kong, in the changes the metropolis has gone through during the past decade under Xi, an expert on the policies and history of the city says.
Hong Kong prospered thanks to its atmosphere of freedom and "common law" system that functioned under China's "one country, two systems" formula. The city has brought huge wealth to mainland China too.
Its freedoms, however, are disappearing.
In 2019, before COVID-19 began to spread, about 1 million people took to the streets of Hong Kong for an unprecedented demonstration against the local government's extradition bill.
The following year, the Xi administration swiftly enacted and enforced the Hong Kong national security law.
Expanding on that Beijing-imposed law, Hong Kong authorities last month put the administrative region's own national security law, known as Article 23, into force mere days after the city's lawmakers passed it.
The controversial law promises to crack down on espionage, the theft of state secrets, treason, sedition and foreign forces' interference in national security. At issue is that these transgressions can be broadly defined.
Compared with the massive demonstration in 2019, the enforcement of Article 23 last month received less international media coverage. It is a law that Hong Kong citizens have been strongly opposing for decades. In 2003, about 500,000 people gathered to demonstrate against attempts to pass the law.
The enforcement of Article 23 was the final nail in the coffin of media freedom in Hong Kong. U.S.-funded Radio Free Asia has already announced the closure of its Hong Kong bureau due to safety concerns under the new law.
What should be recalled here is an incident that took place in Hong Kong nearly 10 years ago.
In late 2015, five people associated with Causeway Bay Books -- a bookstore that published and sold books critical of the Chinese Communist Party and the Xi administration -- disappeared one after another.
The five -- four Hong Kongers and one Swedish national born in China -- were later found to have been detained by Chinese authorities. The Swedish national was abducted from a Thai resort.
The "disappearances" came despite Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" model. It is less ironic that they also took place after the mainland established its national security legislation.
Looking back, the incident was the beginning of the end to a free Hong Kong. The goose that laid golden eggs was being killed, significantly impacting not only Hong Kong's economy but also mainland China's in the years to come.
The loss of freedom has forced economic and psychological adjustments on Hong Kongers, many of whom have decided to pull up roots. Some are visiting the reborn Causeway Bay Books, in central Taipei.
The original Causeway Bay Books was forced to close years ago. Store manager Lam Wing-kee, who was among the 2015 abductees, later migrated to Taiwan. He reopened Causeway Bay Books there in 2020.
Among his frequent visitors is a married couple in their 30s and 40s who recently migrated from Hong Kong to New Taipei City, a residential area adjacent to Taipei.
"Chatting and exchanging views with Lam and others that gather here is our joy of life in Taiwan," they said.
With no restriction on freedom of speech, the store is crammed with all genres of material, including works critical of the mainland's communist regime and photo archives of the Hong Kong demonstrations. It is the kind of haven that no longer exists in Hong Kong.
Advocating a comprehensive national security concept, the Xi administration in 2014 established an anti-espionage law and then in 2015 a national security law, putting political, economic and social activity under a national security umbrella.
The moves might have appeared quite abrupt. But there was an important albeit overlooked sign at a Communist Party meeting held in November 2013, a year after Xi took the party's helm as its general secretary.
Just as the meeting -- the third plenary session of the Communist Party's Central Committee -- closed, a surprise announcement was made through the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The international audience was waiting for the meeting's communique that would reveal the Xi administration's mid- and long-term economic policies. But instead, state media broke the news that a decision had been made to establish the National Security Commission.
As no detailed explanation was given about the commission, the announcement was not well understood. But looking back now, it was a harbinger of the Xi administration's national security-first principle.
The full name of the new organization -- the National Security Commission of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party -- showed that the commission was under the direct control of the Central Committee. The name was made known in January 2014.
Xi was the head, while Cai was tapped as the de facto top official in charge of managing the commission. At the time, no one within the party could have predicted Cai would rise through the ranks to become a member of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee.
The National Security Commission has since acted as China's command center, not only for national security-related legislation but also for moves to deprive Hong Kong of freedoms. The unprecedented incidents involving Causeway Bay Books were just waiting to happen.
The ultimate goal of the national security-first principle is to ensure "political security" and "regime security." In other words, the goal is to secure the current communist regime led by Xi. In a sense, even the Causeway Bay Books crackdown was meant to ensure the Xi administration's security.
But to maintain that security, something had to be done about China's limit of two five-year terms for presidents. "Something" turned out to be an abruptly announced revision to the national constitution in 2018, scrapping the term limit. In October 2022, Xi secured an unprecedented third five-year term as party general secretary. Work had already begun around 2015 to pave the way for his extended reign.
In 2023, China's revised anti-espionage law took effect. The definition of espionage can be interpreted broadly, and it is unclear what activity might lead one to be accused of a crime. Charging one with espionage seems to be at the discretion of authorities. Foreign companies operating in China are thus at the mercy of these authorities, never knowing if one of their executives or employees might be detained, when or for what reason.
But with Xi's national security-first principle and Hong Kong prosperity unable to coexist, the city is reaching a tipping point, with businesses and citizens trying to get out from under the heavy pressure weighing on them.
A number of foreign companies have scaled back their operations in Hong Kong, relocating to Singapore and other hubs. Many Hong Kongers are also decamping to the U.K., Taiwan, Canada and Japan.
The exodus of business operations and anxious citizens has also affected Hong Kong's property market. A similar trend is also happening in mainland China.
Hong Kong's current situation shows how contradictory China's economic policies are. By looking through the prism of Hong Kong, one can gain a hint of what Chinese leaders in Beijing are thinking.
Source: NIKKI ASIA
