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Conservatives have largely dropped a fiercely-held opposition to a woman assuming Japan's throne as empress. But critics say their proposals could still rule out a female head of the world's oldest hereditary monarchy.
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan appears to be inching toward changing the law to expand the imperial family and head off a succession crisis in the world's oldest monarchy.
Critics, however, have cautioned that conservative lawmakers still intend to ensure that any new legislation does not open the way for a woman to finally assume the East Asian nation's Chrysanthemum Throne.
Representatives of parties from across the political spectrum are expected to convene a meeting in early May to address an issue that has hung over the nation's royalty for more than a decade. The LDP indicated a shift in its position earlier this month, which means progress toward a future empress may finally be possible.
Traditionalist hard-liners had previously resisted change, but the party now says two proposals first suggested in 2021 are "reasonable."
One suggestion would permit female members of the imperial family to retain their royal status after they marry instead of becoming commoners who are not, as a consequence, able to produce a male heir to the throne.
Changes to Imperial Household Law
The second suggestion is to reinstate branches of the family that were lopped off shortly after Japan's surrender at the end of World War II, as the occupation authorities sought to dramatically reduce the influence of the emperor.
Adopting those branches back into the imperial family would give it a far larger pool of descendants of the emperor and a far greater likelihood of a male heir.
"To me, this appears to be a good sign, a sign that the LDP is finally listening to the opinion polls on the future of the imperial family," said Hiromi Murakami, a professor of political science at the Tokyo campus of Temple University.
Under the terms of the Imperial Household Law, only male descendants from the male line of the imperial family can become emperor in Japan. However, polls conducted in recent years have consistently indicated that more than 70% of the public are in favor of legal changes that would permit an empress.
"Conservatives have pushed back against that idea and insisted on old-fashioned ideals across a male-dominated society," Murakami told DW. "But it is encouraging to see that changing."
By law, only a male can become emperor in Japan. Emperor Naruhito — who took over in May 2019 after the abdication of his father Akihito — only has a daughter, Princess Aiko. His younger brother, Prince Akishino, also only has daughters, which has prompted talks of a succession crisis.
Japan is world's oldest hereditary monarchy
The threat of no male heir to the throne — and the end of an imperial line that can trace its roots back to the legendary sun goddess Amaterasu in 660 B.C. — was solved in September 2006 when Prince Akishino's wife gave birth to a son, Prince Hisahito.
Successive governments have recognized, however, that a single male heir is not a long-term solution to the shrinking imperial family. In recent years, they have set up a series of panels to explore ways to ensure that a monarchy that is much-loved by the vast majority of Japanese people can continue.
And while the proposals might appear to be a step in the right direction, Yohei Mori, a professor at Tokyo's Seijo University who researches the relationship between the imperial family and the Japanese people, cautioned they are merely the "machinations" of traditionalists in government.
"Both these plans are the result of machinations of conservatives opposed to female emperors," he said. "They have lobbied hard in the Diet [the national legislature — Editor's note] to persuade others in the LDP and the opposition that the male lineage is the Japanese 'tradition'."
As a result, Mori said, these "ridiculous proposals" have been accepted as the two possibilities.
Permitting female members of the imperial family to retain their status "is still conservative," he pointed out, as their commoner husbands and male offspring would still not be permitted to become emperor in the future.
Equally, the traditionalists are "pleased" at the proposal for former branches of the family to be reincorporated as this will reinforce the male lineage requirement.
"I believe the Japanese public is broadly in favor of legal changes that would enlarge the imperial family, whether it is a female emperor or a female lineage emperor, and supports changing a system in which only men have dominated the throne," said Mori.
"This is because it is unreasonable to limit the number of emperors to men in an age when gender equality is being called for."
The UK, Spain and other European nations have long embraced the concept of a female monarch, he said.
Male succession likely to remain tradition
"The problem is the activities of a small number of conservatives, who have had a big influence on legislators and convinced them that male succession is the tradition in Japan," said Mori.
Ultimately, he isn't optimistic that either of the proposals will be formally adopted because an amendment to the Imperial Household Law requires unanimous support — and the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), the country's largest opposition party, remains committed to changes that would permit a female emperor.
"If the LDP would compromise with the CDPJ and accept the proposal for a female emperor, things could move," he said.
"However, it is unlikely that the LDP would compromise that far, given the inevitable backlash from conservative groups. Without a major compromise, there is no chance that the panel's proposal will be implemented."
