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IISS military think tank says 'more dangerous decade' likely
Deutsche Welle
13 Feb 2024, 18:39
A British military think-tank warns that tensions around the world signal "what is likely to be a more dangerous decade." It pointed to flashpoints in Ukraine, Gaza and the South China Sea.
With major wars being waged on multiple continents, the world is facing "what is likely to be a more dangerous decade," a British military think-tank said on Tuesday.
"The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterized by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims," the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in its annual Military Balance report.
The report cited Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Israel's war against Hamas militants in Gaza and Beijing's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea.
But it also pointed to rising tensions in the Arctic, North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons and the rise of military juntas in the Sahel region of Africa as contributing to a "deteriorating security environment."
Global military spend increases
The report found that global military spending grew by 9% to in 2022 to reach $2.2 trillion (€2 trillion).
It said the United States and Europe are ramping up missile and ammunition production after decades of underinvestment because they now face an "era of insecurity" exemplified by the war in Ukraine.
NATO defense funding recently received renewed attention after former US President Donald Trump told a campaign rally during his time in office, he told an unidentified NATO country that he would "encourage" Russia to attack members of the alliance that don't meet their funding commitments.
"'You didn't pay? You're delinquent?'" Trump recounted himself as saying. "'No I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'"
Meanwhile, the report noted that Iran's influence in conflict zones has increased as it supplies missiles to the Houthis in Yemen and drones to Russia.
China had also demonstrated "increased power-projection capacity," it added.
"While Western defense spending is rising and plans to revamp equipment are ongoing, we reflect on the challenges including those set by Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, China's military modernization and events in the Middle East," said IISS chief executive Bastian Giegerich.
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Jacob Zuma barred from running in election
The former president has been expelled from the ruling ANC and has been campaigning for the newly formed MK party. An MK spokesman said the party will appeal the decision made by the Independent Electoral Commission.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma has been disqualified from running in the country's general elections in May.
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said on Thursday he was one of eight candidates who faced official objections.
"In the case of former president Zuma, yes, we did receive an objection, which has been upheld," IEC chairperson Mosotho Moepya said at a media briefing.
The IEC disqualified him over his 2021 conviction and jailing for contempt of court.
Increasing tensions in the run-up to the polls
Zuma, who led the country from 2009 to 2018 until his removal amid wide-ranging allegations of corruption, parted ways with the ruling African National Congress in December and is now leading the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK).
MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndlhela told the AFP news agency the party " of course will appeal" the IEC's decision.
Some of the party's leaders have previously threatened violence if Zuma was barred from contesting the elections.
Seperately the ANC has launched a legal challenge against Zuma's party, disputing its use of the name and trademark of the dissolved organization.
The MK party is named after the former military wing of the ANC, which was disbanded at the end of apartheid.
MK party can still compete in the vote
The IEC's decision does not prevent the MK party from taking part in the May 29 poll.
It is widely expected to be the most competitive vote since the advent of democracy in South Africa in 1994.
According to recent polls, the ANC may dip below 50% of the national vote for the first time since it came into power.
Zuma's popularity has helped the MK Party gain traction ahead of the upcoming polls, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
45 dead in South Africa bus crash, 8-year-old girl only survivor
Local transportation authority says bus was carrying people to attend Easter weekend church service.
A bus carrying 46 people crashed over a bridge in South Africa, killing everyone on board except an 8-year-old girl, local officials said Thursday.
The accident happened on the Mma Matlakala Bridge between Marken and Mokopane, in the northern province of Limpopo, roughly 320 kilometres north of Johannesburg.
The Limpopo Department of Transportation and Community Safety said, in a statement posted on Facebook, the bus was believed to be carrying people who were travelling to attend an Easter weekend church service in the town of Moira.
According to the statement, it's believe the bus lost control and went over the side of the bridge and plummeted 50 metres below onto a rocky surface and caught on fire.
The child who survived the accident was transported to a nearby hospital to be treated, but details of her condition are unclear.
The bus was registered in the neighbouring country of Botswana, the department said, and officials are working to confirm the citizenship of the victims.
The statement went on to say "some bodies were burned beyond recognition," while others were either trapped in wreckage or scattered nearby.
Source: CBC
World's most expensive cow sold for $4.3 million in Brazil
A Nelore cow named Mara Emovis set a world record in 2023 by selling for an astonishing $4.3 million at an auction in Brazil
Nelore cattle, known for their resilience in hot climates, efficient metabolism, and adaptability to harsh conditions, are highly prized for their genetic attributes and potential to improve the breed as a whole.
The record-breaking sale of Viatina-19 FIV Mara shows the importance of Nelore cattle in Brazil's beef industry and their ability to thrive in the country's challenging environment, making them a valuable asset for the future of the industry.
Turkey: Polls close in Erdogan's 'last election'
Analysts say local elections this Sunday are crucial for Turkey's opposition parties, which are under threat of being utterly sidelined by an increasingly authoritarian regime.
As millions of eligible voters headed to the polls to elect mayors in 81 Turkish cities and municipalities on March 31, it is a historic local election for one person in particular: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has spoken of his "last election" before handing over responsibility to the next generation.
Turkey's constitution obliges Erdogan to step down in four years due to term limits. But an Erdogan loyalist in the Turkish parliament, former Justice Minister Bekir Bozdag, has long teased a constitutional amendment that would allow the head of state to run for another term. And the president's ultranationalist ally Devlet Bahceli has publicly pleaded with Erdogan, telling him: "You cannot leave the Turkish nation alone!"
Erdogan's AKP takes on Ekrem Imamoglu
Erdogan's political career gained momentum when he was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994. But it was there, too, that the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) suffered a major defeat in 2019 local elections.
This year, it hopes to erase that embarrassment. A few weeks ago, Erdogan spoke of "five wasted years." In 2019, a united opposition achieved a historic victory after 25 years and succeeded in taking back 11 cities, including Istanbul and the Turkish capital, Ankara, from the AKP.
Many factors were responsible for the defeat of the ruling party, but one man in particular stood out: Ekrem Imamoglu from the Republican People's Party (CHP), who was elected mayor of Istanbul. His reelection or defeat on March 31 could determine the future of Turkey.
If Imamoglu wins, his chances of running for president in 2028 will significantly increase, predicted Berk Esen, a political scientist at Istanbul's Sabanci University. "In my opinion, Imamoglu is the best possible opposition candidate if Erdogan's power machine is to be beaten," he said.
Esen said Imamoglu has the necessary qualities to rally a majority. "He can win the votes of very different population groups. He has the potential to reach conservative, left-wing, Kurdish and even pro-Erdogan voters," he said.
Esen also pointed out that Imamoglu was positioning himself as a direct rival to the president on the campaign trail. "Imamoglu is using these elections to attack Erdogan directly," he said.
In Istanbul, AKP may benefit from divided opposition
But it won't be easy for the anti-AKP camp this Sunday. According to a survey by the Turkish ORC research institute, there are only 1.2 percentage points between Imamoglu and AKP candidate Murat Kurum in Istanbul. The job of Istanbul mayor is of paramount importance for the country as a whole: one-fifth of the Turkish population lives in the metropolitan Istanbul region, and half of Turkey's exports as well as 56% of its imports pass through the megacity.
In the 2023 presidential election, the opposition put forward a joint candidate to face Erdogan but fell short. This time, the three biggest opposition parties — the CHP, the nationalist Good Party (IYI) and the pro-Kurdish DEM — are all presenting their own candidates.
Esen explained that the united opposition front fell apart after Erdogan's victory in the 2023 presidential election, leading to a loss of trust among voters. "In view of this fragmentation and internal struggles among the opposition parties, there is a sense of hopelessness and disenchantment with politics," he said.
When Erdogan was elected mayor of Istanbul in 1994, it was despite the fact that he had received only around 25% of the vote. His four opponents received 22, 20, 15 and 12%. Today, many fear his party's candidate for Istanbul, Kurum, could likewise benefit from such a divided opposition.
Erdogan's opponents seem unmotivated, said Ulas Tol, director of the CORE Research Institute in Istanbul. "Until 2019, Erdogan's party ruled in the big cities and the opposition's ultimate goal was simply winning elections," he said. "Now, those who don't vote for Erdogan are either emotionally politicized to the extreme or turning away from politics altogether."
Erdogan wants to 'get rid of potential 2028 rivals'
These elections will show, "which direction the authoritarian system in Turkey could develop in the coming years," said political scientist Esen.
"Erdogan wants to use these elections to weaken, or completely get rid of potential 2028 rivals," he said. "If he succeeds, the Turkish opposition will be even less able to compete than it is today. The situation is perhaps not comparable with Russia but with Venezuela: elections are held there regularly, but the opposition has no chance of winning. That's why this election is so important for the [Turkish] opposition."
Italy is overtaking Germany as Europe's economic powerhouse
While Germany's economy is stalling, Italy is experiencing continued growth. But this has little to do with PM Giorgia Meloni's economic policies and everything to do with subsidies and new debt.
Mauro Congedo has been finding and renovating small architectural treasures with his brother and father for 25 years in Salento — a peninsula in the southeast of Italy that makes up the "heel" of the country.
The apartments and houses that Congedo restores in this rather remote region are now suddenly finding buyers from Germany and England. "Things are going well again," said the 50-year-old architect.
During the coronavirus pandemic, business almost came to a standstill. But what happened afterward in Italy in the industry was "crazy" he says, dragging out the "a" for a long time. But look deeper and Congedo isn't the only one enthusiastic about the economic recovery in Italy.
Italy goes from problem child to head of the class
While governments in Rome were used to announcing depressing growth forecasts and poor debt rankings in the years before the pandemic, the country is now quickly becoming Europe's growth engine.
In the last quarter, the Italian economy grew by 0.6%, while the German economy shrunk by 0.3% in the same period. Beyond this short three-month snapshot, other figures for Europe's third-largest economy are impressive.
"The Italian economy has grown by 3.8% since 2019," said Jörg Krämer, chief economist at Commerzbank. That is "twice as much as the French economy and five times more than the German economy," he told DW.
In Germany, the prospects are indeed looking bleak. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) predicts growth of 0.3% this year for Germany. Leading German experts are only expecting growth of 0.1%. Italy, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 0.7% this year, according to the OECD.
The Italian stock market is also benefiting from the optimistic mood. The FTSE MIB benchmark index, which is made up of 40 big companies, rose by around 28% last year, more than any other European stock market indices. Italy is on track for more growth.
Trust in the Italian government is returning
It didn't always look so encouraging. Economists initially reacted very cautiously when Giorgia Meloni became prime minister in October 2022. During the election campaign, Meloni and her Brothers of Italy party announced a nationalist "Made in Italy" economic course, agitated against migrants and did not clearly distance herself from Russia.
After her election, the German weekly Stern described her as the "most dangerous woman in Europe." But in terms of economic policy, Meloni has so far largely remained on the same course as her predecessor Mario Draghi. This course is paying off for Italy, at least on the bond market. The interest rate at which the county borrows money is back to the level before she took office.
At a press conference earlier this year, Meloni tried to take credit for the economic upswing. Above all, the lack of political stability in the past had slowed the economy she said, speaking from a position firmly in the saddle.
But how much of the growth is down to Meloni's success?
"Not much," said Krämer from Commerzbank. "The strong growth can be explained by Italy's loose fiscal policy." That means Italy's growth is based primarily on new debt. While the Italian state's new debt before COVID-19 was 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP), it has shot up in recent years and was 8.3% of GDP in the first half of 2023.
The country's overall mountain of debt is growing, too. In January, the EU Commission estimated that it would exceed 140% of GDP this year and continue to rise in 2025. For comparison, in Germany the debt ratio is 66%, in France it is almost 100%.
Huge construction subsidies inject the economy
To help the economy, the Italian state has been funding various home renovation measures since the end of 2020. For some measures they pay around 50% of the cost, others get even more. The most popular is called the "Superbonus 110" for energy-efficient renovations.
Through this program anyone who renovates their house or apartment to make it more energy-efficient will get the entire expenses plus a 10% refund on top through a tax reduction scheme.
"You can imagine that construction investments have skyrocketed," said economist and Italy expert Krämer. "This effect explains two-thirds of the strong growth we are seeing."
The architect Mauro Congedo is not overly enthusiastic about the Superbonus 110 program. Everything has become more expensive. On top of inflation, the program drove up the costs of materials and workers.
"If the state pays for everything, then people don't care how much it costs," said Congedo. In addition, no one controls the prices. Construction companies from Naples, Bari and the provincial capital Lecce asked him several times to adjust his costs upward. "They wanted me to charge twice as much. I didn't do it. It feels like stealing," he said.
He thinks a bonus for the energy-efficient renovation of buildings is a good thing in general. However, owners should have to contribute to the costs and not just get it all from the government. Congedo doesn't think much about Giorgia Meloni either. The only good thing she did was get the Superbonus 110 program under control, he says.
Money from the European Union
In fact, the ultra-right head of government has slowed down the Superbonus program introduced by the left-wing Five Star Movement. In 2023, it covered a maximum 70% of costs and this year up to 65% of the renovation costs.
Nevertheless, the tax credits resulting from the program will significantly reduce government revenue in the next few years. For the government in Rome it is probably very convenient that billions are still flowing — primarily from Brussels. Italy is one of the biggest recipients of the EU's COVID recovery fund.
By 2026, almost €200 billion ($216 billion) will be paid out to Italy in the form of subsidies and loans. "The Italian state must reduce its very high budget deficit by this time at the latest," said Krämer. "If they only start saving then, then this Italian growth miracle will probably end because they didn't use the time for structural reforms."
Mauro Congedo is worried that remnants of the Superbonus 110 program will remain for a long time. "The prices are very high, and we have incurred a lot of debt."
Luckily, he won't run out of work anytime soon. He's currently working on eight projects at the same time.
Lawmakers urge Biden to call out more Chinese biotech firms
A Republican and a Democratic member of Congress are calling on the Biden administration to add seven Chinese biotech firms to a list created by the Defense Department to highlight firms it says are allegedly working with Beijing's military.
In a letter dated March 29 seen by Reuters, Republican Michael Gallagher and Democrat Raja Krishnamoorthi asked Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to take the action since Beijing could harness the power of biotechnology to strengthen its military.
"Urgent action is needed," said the lawmakers, who serve as the chairman and ranking member of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, citing risks that China could "create synthetic pathogens" to gain military advantage.
"The Department of Defense provides responses directly to members of Congress in matters of this kind," a department spokesman said in a statement. "We have no additional information or further details to release at this time."
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in Washington said "some people" in the United States should stop suppressing Chinese companies under false pretexts.
"When it comes to 'using biotech to strengthen its military,' the U.S. side should reflect on itself, rather than groundlessly attacking and smearing China," the spokesperson, Liu Pengyu, said in a statement.
The letter is the latest sign of growing concern in Washington about China's biotech sector.
The U.S. Congress is considering legislation to bar federal agencies from contracting with China's BGI and WuXi AppTec, among others, as part of an effort to keep China from accessing American genetic data and personal health information.
U.S. intelligence officials in late February told senators working on the bill that Chinese pharmaceutical firm WuXi AppTec (603259.SS), opens new tab had transferred U.S. intellectual property to Beijing without consent, Reuters reported.
Being placed on the Pentagon's Chinese military-backed companies list doesn't involve immediate bans. However, it can be a blow to companies' reputations and represents a warning to U.S. firms considering doing business with them. It could also put pressure on the Treasury Department to sanction them.
In their letter, Gallagher and Krishnamoorthi call for the addition of Innomics and STOmics, which they allege are subsidiaries of BGI. BGI Genomics Co (300676.SZ), opens new tab, a publicly listed subsidiary of BGI Group, was added to the list in 2022.
Reuters reported in 2021 that BGI has made sales worldwide of prenatal tests developed in collaboration with China's military and has used them to collect genetic data from millions of women for sweeping research on traits of populations.
BGI has said it is not controlled by the Chinese government or military and that it respects human rights.
The letter also names Origincell, for allegedly operating a bio-storage cell tank and having ties to the Chinese military and Vazyme Biotech (688105.SS), opens new tab, which allegedly makes bioactive compounds and has investors with ties to the military.
"STOmics Americas is a U.S.-based company that has no operations in China nor any connections whatsoever with the Chinese military," the BGI Group said in a statement.
Source: Reuters
Gaza death toll crosses 33,000
The death toll in the Gaza Strip from ongoing Israeli attacks has exceeded 33,000. More than 24,000 women and children were among the dead.
The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip has announced in a statement that the total death toll is about 33,037 and more than 75,668 are injured since the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out on Oct. 7, 2023, reports Al Jazeera on Friday (April 5).
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) released several posts on X on the eve of the Palestinian Child Day stated, "1,000 children have lost either one or both of their legs in Gaza."
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) stated that Israel kills around four children per hour in Gaza.
However, Israel has been launching a large-scale offensive against Hamas in Gaza to retaliate against a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7, 2023. About Two million people in Gaza bocame refugee by Israeli attacks.
