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Inflation seen surging to 31pc in September
International Desk, RTV
01 Oct 2023, 15:41
The finance ministry on Wednesday forecast inflation to surge by 3-4 percentage points to 31 per cent in September compared to 27.4pc in the preceding month mainly because of a major increase in fuel prices.
Inflation was likely to ease due to the double-digit base effect in September, but the significant rise in fuel prices offset it, said the Economic Advisors’ Wing of the Ministry of Finance in its monthly economic update & outlook for September.
Together with this, the upward adjustment in energy tariffs is further likely to intensify inflationary pressures in the coming months as these price adjustments are expected to place an additional burden on transportation costs, essential items, and services, it further said.
It is expected that inflation will remain in the range of 29pc to 31pc in September.
Inflation has declined to 27.3pc in August, down from peak levels of 38pc in May. The State Bank of Pakistan forecasts inflation to decline sharply in 2024 due to the improved agricultural output, and administrative measures taken to curb volatility in the foreign exchange markets.
SBP has projected 20-22pc average inflation for FY24 from 29.2pc in FY23.
The report highlights a series of actions that the government has already taken and the declining international prices that would help to lower inflation in the coming months.
The report claims that the government’s stern administrative measures to curtail the hoarding of commodities and a crackdown on illegal forex business have resulted in moderating the inflation pressure. However, given the international oil price pressure and adjustment in energy prices, uncertainty in inflation will remain.
The government has launched an operation against illegal forex dealers and commodity hoarders, which has stabilised the exchange rate and reduced commodity prices.
The SBP has left its policy rate unchanged at 22pc saying inflationary expectations are under control. The rupee depreciated by 45pc against the dollar since June 2022 reaching 295 in the interbank market and 304 in the open market in August.
The weak rupee had fuelled the record-high inflation in the past year. To address this issue, the government has taken action against the exchange companies that were involved in speculative activities.
On the other hand, international food prices have been experiencing a decline since August. The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)’s price index, which tracks the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 121.4 points in August against 124.0 for the previous month.
The August figure was the lowest since March 2021 and also 24pc below than an all-time high in March 2022, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The decline in most of the food commodities is offsetting the increases in rice and sugar.
According to the finance ministry, the main cause of inflation is the structural problems — public debt, energy circular debt and trade deficit. Corrective fiscal action must be taken on an urgent basis to reduce inflation.
For FY24, significant enhancements in budget allocations for social safety nets have been made including cash transfers under BISP.
The government is taking measures to curb inflation and is sparing the public from the full impact of the power and gas tariff hike. It has allocated Rs1 trillion for subsidies in FY24, the ministry said.
Source: DAWN
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Gaza death toll crosses 33,000
The death toll in the Gaza Strip from ongoing Israeli attacks has exceeded 33,000. More than 24,000 women and children were among the dead.
The Ministry of Health in the Gaza Strip has announced in a statement that the total death toll is about 33,037 and more than 75,668 are injured since the Israel-Hamas conflict broke out on Oct. 7, 2023, reports Al Jazeera on Friday (April 5).
The Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) released several posts on X on the eve of the Palestinian Child Day stated, "1,000 children have lost either one or both of their legs in Gaza."
Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) stated that Israel kills around four children per hour in Gaza.
However, Israel has been launching a large-scale offensive against Hamas in Gaza to retaliate against a Hamas rampage through the southern Israeli border on October 7, 2023. About Two million people in Gaza bocame refugee by Israeli attacks.
US court orders exiled Chinese billionaire Guo Wengui to face fraud indictment
A judge said prosecutors sufficiently alleged that Guo engaged in a pattern of racketeering through four fraud schemes
The businessman is accused of defrauding thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion
A US judge on Tuesday rejected exiled Chinese businessman Guo Wengui’s bid to dismiss an indictment accusing him of defrauding thousands of investors out of more than US$1 billion.
US District Judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan said prosecutors sufficiently alleged that Guo engaged in a pattern of racketeering through four fraud schemes, and that proving it was a matter for trial.
Lawyers for Guo did not immediately respond to requests for comment after business hours.
Guo has pleaded not guilty to 12 criminal charges that included securities fraud, wire fraud, unlawful monetary transactions and conspiracy, including for money laundering.
According to the indictment, Guo and his accomplices defrauded investors in a media company, cryptocurrency and other ventures.
The indictment said Guo took advantage of his prolific online presence and hundreds of thousands of followers by promising outsize financial returns and other benefits.
In reality, the scheme allowed the co-conspirators to enrich themselves and family members, and fund Guo’s “extravagant lifestyle”, the indictment said.
Two co-defendants face related criminal charges, including one defendant charged with obstruction.
Also known as Ho Wan Kwok and Miles Kwok, Guo is a critic of China’s Communist Party and business associate of former US president Donald Trump’s one-time adviser Steve Bannon.
Guo has been jailed in Brooklyn since his March 2023 arrest, with Torres and a federal appeal court rejecting his proposed US$25 million bail package last year.
Jury selection in his trial is scheduled to begin on May 20.
Prosecutors also sought the forfeiture of various assets including bank accounts, a US$37 million yacht, a New Jersey mansion, a Bugatti, a Lamborghini and a Rolls-Royce.
Guo filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in Connecticut in February 2022. That case was later combined with the bankruptcies of other companies he controlled. Torres has twice rejected Guo’s bid to stay the bankruptcy proceedings.
Source: South China Morning Post
Hong Kong's lost freedom shows Xi Jinping's priorities: Analysis
Causeway Bay Books incident was a harbinger of regime's security-first principle.
Katsuji Nakazawa is a Tokyo-based senior staff and editorial writer at Nikkei. He spent seven years in China as a correspondent and later as China bureau chief. He was the 2014 recipient of the Vaughn-Ueda International Journalist prize.
Is China heading toward a more open economy? Or does it want to prioritize national security? This is probably the most difficult conundrum global investors face when considering today's China.
While the communist regime advocates a "high-standard opening-up" of the economy to achieve a 5% growth target, it is also pushing to realize Chinese-style national security, saying that "political security" and "regime security" take precedence over other policies, including economic ones.
The fact that President Xi Jinping's two close aides are in charge of the economy and security -- two contradictory initiatives -- further confuses the matter. Premier Li Qiang has the economic portfolio while Cai Qi is the security czar.
If there is a clue to understanding the mixed messages, it lies in Hong Kong, in the changes the metropolis has gone through during the past decade under Xi, an expert on the policies and history of the city says.
Hong Kong prospered thanks to its atmosphere of freedom and "common law" system that functioned under China's "one country, two systems" formula. The city has brought huge wealth to mainland China too.
Its freedoms, however, are disappearing.
In 2019, before COVID-19 began to spread, about 1 million people took to the streets of Hong Kong for an unprecedented demonstration against the local government's extradition bill.
The following year, the Xi administration swiftly enacted and enforced the Hong Kong national security law.
Expanding on that Beijing-imposed law, Hong Kong authorities last month put the administrative region's own national security law, known as Article 23, into force mere days after the city's lawmakers passed it.
The controversial law promises to crack down on espionage, the theft of state secrets, treason, sedition and foreign forces' interference in national security. At issue is that these transgressions can be broadly defined.
Compared with the massive demonstration in 2019, the enforcement of Article 23 last month received less international media coverage. It is a law that Hong Kong citizens have been strongly opposing for decades. In 2003, about 500,000 people gathered to demonstrate against attempts to pass the law.
The enforcement of Article 23 was the final nail in the coffin of media freedom in Hong Kong. U.S.-funded Radio Free Asia has already announced the closure of its Hong Kong bureau due to safety concerns under the new law.
What should be recalled here is an incident that took place in Hong Kong nearly 10 years ago.
In late 2015, five people associated with Causeway Bay Books -- a bookstore that published and sold books critical of the Chinese Communist Party and the Xi administration -- disappeared one after another.
The five -- four Hong Kongers and one Swedish national born in China -- were later found to have been detained by Chinese authorities. The Swedish national was abducted from a Thai resort.
The "disappearances" came despite Hong Kong's "one country, two systems" model. It is less ironic that they also took place after the mainland established its national security legislation.
Looking back, the incident was the beginning of the end to a free Hong Kong. The goose that laid golden eggs was being killed, significantly impacting not only Hong Kong's economy but also mainland China's in the years to come.
The loss of freedom has forced economic and psychological adjustments on Hong Kongers, many of whom have decided to pull up roots. Some are visiting the reborn Causeway Bay Books, in central Taipei.
The original Causeway Bay Books was forced to close years ago. Store manager Lam Wing-kee, who was among the 2015 abductees, later migrated to Taiwan. He reopened Causeway Bay Books there in 2020.
Among his frequent visitors is a married couple in their 30s and 40s who recently migrated from Hong Kong to New Taipei City, a residential area adjacent to Taipei.
"Chatting and exchanging views with Lam and others that gather here is our joy of life in Taiwan," they said.
With no restriction on freedom of speech, the store is crammed with all genres of material, including works critical of the mainland's communist regime and photo archives of the Hong Kong demonstrations. It is the kind of haven that no longer exists in Hong Kong.
Advocating a comprehensive national security concept, the Xi administration in 2014 established an anti-espionage law and then in 2015 a national security law, putting political, economic and social activity under a national security umbrella.
The moves might have appeared quite abrupt. But there was an important albeit overlooked sign at a Communist Party meeting held in November 2013, a year after Xi took the party's helm as its general secretary.
Just as the meeting -- the third plenary session of the Communist Party's Central Committee -- closed, a surprise announcement was made through the state-run Xinhua News Agency.
The international audience was waiting for the meeting's communique that would reveal the Xi administration's mid- and long-term economic policies. But instead, state media broke the news that a decision had been made to establish the National Security Commission.
As no detailed explanation was given about the commission, the announcement was not well understood. But looking back now, it was a harbinger of the Xi administration's national security-first principle.
The full name of the new organization -- the National Security Commission of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party -- showed that the commission was under the direct control of the Central Committee. The name was made known in January 2014.
Xi was the head, while Cai was tapped as the de facto top official in charge of managing the commission. At the time, no one within the party could have predicted Cai would rise through the ranks to become a member of the powerful Politburo Standing Committee.
The National Security Commission has since acted as China's command center, not only for national security-related legislation but also for moves to deprive Hong Kong of freedoms. The unprecedented incidents involving Causeway Bay Books were just waiting to happen.
The ultimate goal of the national security-first principle is to ensure "political security" and "regime security." In other words, the goal is to secure the current communist regime led by Xi. In a sense, even the Causeway Bay Books crackdown was meant to ensure the Xi administration's security.
But to maintain that security, something had to be done about China's limit of two five-year terms for presidents. "Something" turned out to be an abruptly announced revision to the national constitution in 2018, scrapping the term limit. In October 2022, Xi secured an unprecedented third five-year term as party general secretary. Work had already begun around 2015 to pave the way for his extended reign.
In 2023, China's revised anti-espionage law took effect. The definition of espionage can be interpreted broadly, and it is unclear what activity might lead one to be accused of a crime. Charging one with espionage seems to be at the discretion of authorities. Foreign companies operating in China are thus at the mercy of these authorities, never knowing if one of their executives or employees might be detained, when or for what reason.
But with Xi's national security-first principle and Hong Kong prosperity unable to coexist, the city is reaching a tipping point, with businesses and citizens trying to get out from under the heavy pressure weighing on them.
A number of foreign companies have scaled back their operations in Hong Kong, relocating to Singapore and other hubs. Many Hong Kongers are also decamping to the U.K., Taiwan, Canada and Japan.
The exodus of business operations and anxious citizens has also affected Hong Kong's property market. A similar trend is also happening in mainland China.
Hong Kong's current situation shows how contradictory China's economic policies are. By looking through the prism of Hong Kong, one can gain a hint of what Chinese leaders in Beijing are thinking.
Source: NIKKI ASIA
All people of faith should stand against China’s Uyghur genocide
In 2024, with our attention taken up by the presidential race and by futile culture-war battles, following the news has seemingly become more fruitless than ever, especially for a religious person who feels obligated to respond to societal ills.
When members of my Jewish community tell me they face this problem, I say that being God-conscious individuals requires us to see beyond the news of the day and focus on our most pressing moral concerns. In many respects, I am inspired by the Catholic Church, which, at its best, holds true to its values—whether I agree with its conclusions or not—without overly prioritizing political point-scoring. What matters is not landing on the left or right side of an issue, but seeking to carry out the will of God in the world.
More and more, I have been saying there is one issue where all people, particularly all religious people, can present a unified front, across partisan lines and across faith traditions. That issue is what can be called the genocide of the Uyghurs in China.
There seems to be no end in sight regarding disagreements on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, abortion, same-sex marriage and the like. But Christians, Jews and Muslims, as well as Democrats, Republicans and independents, can all agree that the Uyghur genocide, in which the Chinese Uyghur population (who are predominantly Muslim) has endured imprisonment, forced labor, religious persecution and much else, is an affront to human dignity and religious freedom.
As one example of how we can respond, as Jews, a coalition of us led by the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity are pressing Jewish C.E.O.s to provide documentation that they are not using Uyghur forced labor. If Christian organizations take similar steps, the impact can multiply.
In recent history, Christians and Jews have come together to support the U.S. civil rights movement, religious freedom for minorities and the end of apartheid in South Africa. But when I look around at the world today, I see a startling lack of moral clarity. Part of this, I have to think, stems from the decline of religion, particularly in the United States. This decline was illustrated by a headline in USA Today in January: “More ‘nones’ than Catholics: Non-religious Americans near 30% in latest survey.”
Despite the many societal improvements we have made in recent decades, I worry that we will no longer see mass movements for the betterment of the world if every individual is made into their own freelance arbiter of moral justice. That USA Today article confirmed my suspicions, saying:
“Nones” are less likely to volunteer or vote in elections. Of the U.S. adults surveyed, 17 percent of religious “nones” volunteered in the last year compared to 27 percent of religiously affiliated adults, and 39 percent of “nones” voted in the 2022 election compared to 51 percent of religiously affiliated adults.
They also showed slightly lower rates of civic engagement, and were less likely to have contacted officials or attended a government meeting in the last year.
One explanation for these differences: Religious people feel responsible for the collective, whether it is made up of fellow synagogue-goers or parishioners, our co-religionists around the world, or all other human beings, made in the image of God.
But we cannot afford to waste that blessing. We must use it to overcome the moral catastrophes of our time, understanding that religion is not just about carrying on the traditions of the past but also about shaping a brighter future.
When we see the injustices of the world, we are called to actualize the words of Psalm 69:
The lowly will see and rejoice; you who are mindful of God, take heart!
For God listens to the needy, and does not spurn those held captive.
If you are a Christian who wants to be a partner in our work toward ending the repression of the Uyghurs, join our coalition in a two-day conference, led by the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity, on April 17 and 18 in New York City. If you cannot join, you can still get involved by researching and avoiding brands that use forced labor, pressuring politicians to act at the state and national levels, and petitioning governments and companies. Bans on products from Uyghur forced labor have been put in place, but they have not effectively been enforced and need reinforcements.
I don’t want to take the view that religious people are the only ones who can lead on this issue. But I feel deeply compelled to act because of a deeply held belief that every human being is created in the image of God.
Source: America Magazine
Climate activist Greta Thunberg arrested in the Netherlands
Dutch authorities have detained Greta Thunberg and other climate protesters from the Extinction Rebellion group after they blocked a motorway in The Hague on Saturday.
Dutch authorities have detained prominent climate activist Greta Thunberg, along with several Extinction Rebellion demonstrators, after they occupied a motorway in The Hague.
Thunberg and members of Extinction Rebellion were seen waiting in a bus, while police arrested more people. The protest was against fossil fuel subsidies.
Dozens of police officers, including officers on horseback, were seen blocking protesters from getting onto the A12 motorway leading to the parliament in The Hague.
Activists from the group have blocked the highway more than 30 times previously to protest the subsidies. A small group of people managed to sit down on another road and were detained after ignoring police orders to leave.
The demonstrators waved and chanted: "We are unstoppable, another world is possible."
"It's important to demonstrate today because we are living in a state of planetary emergency," Thunberg told AFP news agency. "We must do everything to avoid that crisis and to save human lives," she added.
Asked whether she was worried about being arrested, Thunberg said: "Why should I be?"
Extinction Rebellion has said it will continue to hold protests until the Dutch government stops using public funds to subsidize the oil and gas industry.
Protest to apply pressure on Dutch government to ditch fossil fuel subsidies
"Meanwhile the ecological crisis continues to rage and the country's outgoing cabinet pretends that we have all the time in the world, while the crisis is now," Extinction Rebellion said in a statement posted on X.
The protest was part of a plan to apply pressure on the Dutch government ahead of a planned debate about fossil fuel subsidies in June.
Thunberg inspires global youth movement to fight climate change
In February, Thunberg, who is 21 years old, was cleared of a public order offense by a London court over a protest at an oil and gas conference in October.
In January, she was detained with other activists during protests against the demolition of the German coal village of Luetzerath. She shot to fame in 2018 when she began staging weekly protests outside the Swedish parliament.
She has repeatedly been fined in Sweden and the UK for civil disobedience in connection with protests.
McDonald's: Behind the fast-food firm's boycott controversy
The sudden decision by McDonald's to take over ownership of its branches in Israel has thrust the franchise company Alonyal and its chief executive Omri Padan into the spotlight.
McDonald's will buy back all of its Israeli restaurants after global sales slumped due to a boycott of the brand over its perceived support for Israel in its war against Hamas in Gaza.
The fast-food giant uses a franchise system which means that individual operators are licensed to run outlets and employ staff. But the broader company came in for criticism after Mr Padan offered free meals to Israeli forces around the start of the Israel-Gaza war on 7 October.
A boycott was sparked after Muslim-majority countries such as Kuwait, Malaysia and Pakistan issued statements distancing themselves from the firm for what they saw as support of Israel.
Mr Padan, however, is not new to controversy related to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the 30 years the businessman has been operating restaurants for McDonald's in Israel, he has been at the centre of a number of disputes.
In 2013, the Israeli businessman angered Israel's settler movement when he refused calls to open a branch of the fast-food chain in the settlement of Ariel in the occupied West Bank. Mr Padan's company Alonyal was asked to set up a restaurant in a shopping centre but declined, saying the firm had a policy of staying out of the occupied territories.
At the time, the firm said the decision had not been co-ordinated with McDonald's headquarters in the US.
Israel has built about 160 settlements housing some 700,000 Jews since it occupied the West Bank and East Jerusalem - land the Palestinians want as part of a future state - in the 1967 Middle East war.
The vast majority of the international community considers the settlements illegal under international law, although Israel disputes this.
Mr Padan is one of the founders of the group Peace Now, which opposes all settlements and views them as obstacles to peace. Peace Now says he is no longer a member of the group, which was founded in 1978.
A leader of the Yesha Council, the settlers' umbrella organisation, said at the time that McDonald's had gone from being a for-profit company to one with an "anti-Israeli political agenda".
Alonyal's decision resurfaced in 2019 when McDonald's won a tender to run a restaurant and hot dog stand at Israel's Ben-Gurion Airport.
In response, several letters of protest were sent by settlement leaders in the West Bank that called on the finance and transportation ministries, as well as the Israel airport authority, to block the move. Protests were also held outside the fast-food chain's restaurants in Tel Aviv.
And on Thursday, it was abruptly announced that Alonyal would sell the sprawling franchise back to the US food giant.
The terms of the deal were not disclosed by McDonald's, although a reputation management expert, who has worked on behalf a number of large companies but did not want to speak on the record, said that those outraged by the decision to offer free meals to Israeli forces may be "angry that this deal makes Mr Padan possibly a very rich man".
They might be pleased though, about the effect the boycott has had.
Mr Padan's departure comes after McDonald's said that the Israel-Gaza conflict had "meaningfully impacted" performance in some overseas markets in the fourth quarter of 2023.
For the unit that includes the Middle East, China and India, sales growth stood at 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2023 - far below market expectations.
At the start of the year, McDonald's chief executive Chris Kempczinski blamed the backlash on "misinformation".
The boycott was also described as "disheartening and ill-founded" by the firm, which relies on thousands of independent businesses to own and operate most of its more than 40,000 stores around the world. About 5% are located in the Middle East.
The brand management expert said: "I get it. They are buying back the franchises to regain control but I'm not sure they have."
They also questioned where the company might draw a line: "Does this mean [McDonald's] will now need to act and offer deals in other areas where reputational damage has been caused?"
On Thursday, McDonald's said that it "remains committed to the Israeli market and to ensuring a positive employee and customer experience in the market going forward."
It also thanked Alonyal for building the brand in Israel, while Mr Padan said: "We are encouraged by what the future holds."
BBC News did not receive further comment from Mr Padan or Alonyal through McDonald's.
Source: BBC
Saudi Arabia to celebrate Eid on Wednesday
Eid-ul-Fitr will be celebrated in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday (April 10) as the Shawwal crescent was not sighted.
The Saudi Supreme Court confirmed this information in an announcement on Monday (April 8).
This time Fasting will last for 30 days in the country.
Earlier on Saturday (April 6), the country's Supreme Court called for sighting the moon of Eid on Monday evening. According to the order of the Supreme Court, millions of Muslims kept their eyes in the western sky after Maghrib prayers on this day. But shortly afterwards, the Saudi Supreme Court said that the moon of Shawwal was not sighted. Therefore, the holy Eid-ul-Fitr will be celebrated on Wednesday (April 10).
