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‘New normal’: Chinese revenue from African projects is in decline, and the situation is unlikely to change
With lenders tightening their purse strings and the number of projects in decline, Chinese revenue earned from engineering and construction works in Africa has fallen by more than 30 per cent since 2015. Now observers say this is the “new normal”. It was a different picture almost a decade ago when Chinese companies earned more than a third of their total overseas revenue from Africa. That is certainly not the case today. According to data from the China Africa Research Initiative (CARI) at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, engineering and construction contracts in Africa earned Chinese companies US$37.84 billion in gross annual revenues in 2022, which was a 31 per cent drop from US$54.78 billion generated in 2015, the year lending to Africa was at its highest. Africa made up 19.4 per cent of global revenue for Chinese companies in 2022, CARI said, almost halved from its 2010 peak of 38.9 per cent. Excluding small businesses, it is estimated there are more than 10,000 state-owned and private Chinese companies currently operating in Africa. Most of these moved to the continent during former Chinese president Jiang Zemin’s push for businesses to “go out” in search of new markets and raw materials at the beginning of the century. Between 2000 and 2022, China pledged a total of US$170.1 billion to African countries – money that went into building mega projects, including ports, hydroelectric dams, highways and railways. But since the highs of the start of the century, and the peaks of the 2010s, lending concerns, exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, have sparked a turnaround, observers said. Worries over the ability of some countries to repay their loans led to a drop in Chinese lending to Africa, as financiers became more cautious and thorough in their loan appraisals. Between 2012 and 2018, Africa borrowed more than US$10 billion annually from Chinese lenders. By 2021 that had dropped to US$1.2 billion, and in 2022 it fell under the billion-dollar mark to US$994.5 million, according to the Chinese Loans to Africa database at Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre. Hong Zhang, a China public policy postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University’s Ash Centre for Democratic Governance and Innovation, said it was a simple case of falling loans having a direct impact on falling revenue. “The drop in contract revenue in Africa can be attributed to the decline of Chinese loans to Africa,” Zhang said. Citing CARI data, she said Chinese loans to Africa had been declining since around 2013, except in 2016 when the debt restructuring in Angola made a one-off jump. Meanwhile, Asia’s share has been on the rise, she said. Asia remains by far the biggest source of revenue for Chinese companies engaged in engineering and construction contracts, bringing in US$82.43 billion in 2022, with Africa in second place. However, although revenue from Africa is in decline, some parts of the continent are bigger earners than others. China’s highest African revenues were gained from the five resource-rich countries of Nigeria, Angola, Algeria, Egypt and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Together, they accounted for 41 per cent of all Chinese companies’ 2022 gross annual revenues from construction projects in Africa. In Nigeria, Africa’s biggest economy and most populous country, Chinese businesses are undertaking mega projects, such as multibillion-dollar railways and ports. China’s annual revenues from Nigeria rose steadily from US$488 million in 2004 to a peak of US$4.99 billion in 2012, boosted by the West African nation’s booming construction industry. Since then, that figure has remained high, sitting at around US$4.59 billion in 2022. Angola got more than a quarter of China’s total African lending between 2000 and 2022, receiving as much as US$45 billion. A major Chinese project there is the US$4.1 billion Caculo Cabaca Hydroelectric Power Station. Oil-rich Algeria has seen Chinese companies build massive projects, such as railways and highways. And in Egypt, Chinese firms are building mega projects at the Suez Canal as well as helping to construct the new administrative capital in Cairo. Meanwhile in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, many Chinese companies have been working on the nation’s infrastructure and mining sectors, attracted by the fact it holds the world’s largest reserve of cobalt, vital to the production of electric vehicle batteries. Yunnan Chen, a senior research officer at the London-based Overseas Development Institute think tank, said contracts and revenues were down for engineering and construction projects in Africa because the number of projects had fallen. Even before the pandemic, financing for infrastructure construction via overseas finance was in decline, she said, and that was impacted further by the Covid lockdowns. “We simply don’t have the same kind of project pipeline as we did in previous years,” Chen said. She also noted that several African countries, including Angola and Egypt, had been facing external debt repayment issues. “Governments don’t have the capacity to borrow to finance new construction as they did five years ago,” she said. The current situation is the “new normal” for Chinese contractors in Africa, according to Tim Zajontz, a research fellow in the Centre for International and Comparative Politics at Stellenbosch University in South Africa. “Lower contract revenues are ultimately the result of more conservative lending practices on the part of China’s policy banks,” said Zajontz. “Debt sustainability concerns have ended the loan funding spree in African infrastructure markets, which we witnessed for good parts of the 2010s,” he said. But, despite the reduced revenue, Africa still holds an attraction for Chinese firms. Higher returns is one such pull for Chinese companies, according to Zhang. She explained that since there is usually no competitive bidding for Chinese-financed projects, as “Chinese contractors help broker the loans from China”, companies can see better returns. “Therefore, when Chinese loans took up a higher percentage of Chinese contracts in Africa than in other regions, the average return could be higher as a result,” Zhang said. Zajontz noted that Africa is particularly attractive to firms in sectors that have faced crises in China’s domestic market, such as construction and infrastructure. “We will see further diversification of Chinese investments across Africa,” he said. “A bigger share of returns for Chinese firms will come from public-private partnerships in infrastructure, from investments in the processing of minerals and agricultural goods, and from digital platforms and other services.”   Source: South China Morning Post
08 Apr 2024,20:03

European Parliament: conference condemns “misinformed” resolution on human rights situation in Bangladesh
Speaking to EU Today exclusively after the event, German MEP Maximillian Krah, when asked about his impressions of the European Parliament resolution stated: “I was against it, because in general I’m really sceptical against these resolutions because first of all they come very urgently and presently from the NGO bubble. “They usually care about cases which are not double-checked and then I try at least to double-check them. So, I give the embassies the chance to give their arguments and I google it on all sides and usually I don’t think that these cases are convincing. Maximilian Krah MEP “The same is true about Bangladesh. The case was not convincing because an NGO activist made a wrong statement on police violence and there was a risk that this would cause a real upspring or riot and such misinformation is punishable in Europe as well. So, we blame the Bangladeshis to prosecute the behaviour that we in Europe would prosecute too and that is not at all convincing.”  Fake NGOs, which frequently issue human rights reports, are often commissioned by dubious actors seeking to subvert the legislative process. They are sometimes, as in the recent Qatargate scandal, linked with organised criminal activities, but most often are commissioned by foreign actors seeking to influence the EU’s foreign policy.. This is a phenomenon the EU institutions are currently seeking to address. When asked for his own recommendations on how to deal with the matter, Mr. Krah said “The first thing of course is to act more proactively when it comes to disinformation, but in general you have to focus on the whole structure of this NGO power. “There is a huge human rights industry that is also a powerful tool to promote Western foreign policy interests throughout the world. That means that you have to be aware that human rights issues are emotional issues and that there are wonderful NGOs that are dedicated to it, but you also have to be aware that this is now the most powerful tool of the West to push its foreign policy agenda in the whole world. “To focus on the human rights alone and then demand changes based on the special experiences of the Global South, we risk double standards: We must look into regulating these international and national NGO structures because we will invite foreign influence in our domestic politics if we don’t.” When asked if he thought the European Parliament’s resolution would have a negative impact on trade relations with Bangladesh, – the EU is now Bangladesh’s main trading partner – he said “We are doing everything we can to bring trade relations to the next higher level. In the case of Bangladesh, I consider the case for this so clear that at the very end this resolution, which has no legislative power whatsoever, will not be a threat we cannot overcome.” Also addressing the European Parliament conference was Dr. Rayhan Rashid (DPhil, Oxford University) Legal Consultant at Oxford Matrix. Dr. Rashid was equally dismissive of the resolution, describing it as “largely misinformed.” Dr. Rayhan Rashid He continued, “It was well-meaning. Of course, the parliamentarians meant well after they heard a story about human rights abuses. I can fully understand that they were sensitised, but they were not fully informed about the whole picture”.  When asked how this could happen, Dr. Rashid told us: “This whole case was misrepresented. The reason the case started is because of the Hefazat-e-Islam incident in 2013. “The country was on the verge of a Talibanist militant uprising and Hefazat was their party, meaning that they were moving into important spheres. Therefore, there was a crackdown on this, but it was open, and in the presence of some national and international journalists, including the BBC. The police crackdown wanted to disperse this kind of Islamist militants in the presence of media. “The next day, Odhikar (a a Bangladesh-based human rights organisation) came up with a story that 63 people were prosecuted. Hefazat (a far-right Islamic advocacy group of madrassah teachers and students) even came up with bigger numbers, such as 20,000 people. Based on Hefazat’s version, Odhikar said that 63 people had disappeared because of the crackdown. Personally, I’m a human rights activist. Everyone was concerned and asking questions and after a few days, we saw that actually most of the people claimed to have been disappeared, actually turned up. So, at the beginning at the height of things, I can understand this. Media or human rights organisations have scoops but with all the occurring corrections, they didn’t reject their claims.” We asked Dr. Rashid if Odhikar made any particular demands on the government? “When they came up with this scoop, they asked for an investigation, because in a country, even with an Islamic uprising or attempt of uprising, 63 people disappearing is not acceptable. “That was the situation. Everyone asked for an investigation, including myself. But then it was debunked. The problem with Odhikar was that they didn’t correct their story which they then repeated international media and among other friendly human rights organisations. And those organisations don’t have an office in Bangladesh, they don’t have an active investigative mechanism within Bangladesh, they have to rely on Odhikar’s version. So, that’s how Odhikar’s story got recycled over and over again.”  When asked if there is  any evidence linking Odhikar to the Taliban, Dr. Rashid replied: “No, I wouldn’t say that for Odhikar. I think it was more about Odhikar’s Secretary Adilur Rahman Khan. He was a human rights activist, but he was also an attorney general during the BNP regime. I don’t know what is going on in his mind or within his organisation or whether there was a political motivation.”  We asked Dr. Rashid to elucidate what Hefazat’s goal was back in 2013?  They raised 13 demands, he explained:  Reinstate the phrase “Absolute trust and faith in the Almighty Allah” in the Constitution as one of the fundamental principles of state policy. Pass a law providing for capital punishment for maligning Allah, Islam, and the Prophet Muhammad and for starting smear campaigns against Muslims. Stop all propaganda and “derogatory comments” about the Prophet Muhammad by “atheist leaders” of the Shahbagh movement, atheist bloggers and other anti-Islamists; arrest them and ensure stern punishment to them. Stop attacking, shooting, killing, and persecuting the Prophet-loving Islamic scholars, madrassa students and people united by belief in Allah. Release all the arrested Islamic scholars and madrassa students. Lift restrictions on mosques and remove obstacles for the holding of religious programmes. Declare Qadianis (Ahmadiyyas) non-Muslim and stop their publicity and conspiracies. Stop foreign cultural intrusions, including free-mixing of men and women and candle-light vigils, and put an end to adultery, injustice, and shamelessness, among other things, committed in the name of freedom of expression and the individual. Stop turning Dhaka, the city of mosques, into a city of idols, and stop installing sculptures at road intersections, colleges, and universities. Scrap anti-Islam women policy and education policy and make Islamic education mandatory from primary to higher secondary levels. Stop threatening and intimidating teachers and students of the Qawmi madrassas, Islamic scholars, imams and khatib s. Stop creating hatred among the younger generation against Muslims by misrepresentation of Islamic culture in the media. Stop anti-Islam activities by non-governmental organisations, evil attempts by Qadianis and conversion by Christian missionaries in Chittagong Hill Tracts and elsewhere in the country. So, we asked, “what, if any, is the connection between this NGO and Hefazat?” “In 2013, this Islamist terrorist group had huge support base coming from madrasas (Islamic schools) and they actually took to the streets demanding an Islamic State, a Taliban-style Islamic State. And their demands were exactly like the Taliban’s decrees. About women, about education, about everything. They were just a carbon-copy. “Unfortunately, they had a lot of support from other Islamic clerics, who also took to the streets and basically the country was on the verge of a shutdown. At that time, the government dispersed these groups in the presence of media. But then after the dispersal, suddenly we started hearing about 20,000 people disappearing, but then it was not 20,000 but 63. Odhikar claimed that 63 persons had disappeared. “Odhikar is a human rights organization led by a person who used to be an attorney general of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) regime so maybe there could be a political motivation. But I cannot get into his mind and know what is going on and I actually appreciated when they first they came up with that story. And I thought that if this is real, it should be addressed. But I was also disappointed that this story about the 63 disappearing people was debunked and a lot of them turned up.”  “What do you recommend the European Parliament should do to prevent such disinformation campaigns in the future?” “Just to do their own homework. Each parliamentarian has their aides, a whole team of researchers. I think that they are far-better equipped than anybody else. They are not ordinary people; they can actually crosscheck. It is always better to hear the other side or hear across the board. “Just pick up different people and listen to different stories and then make up your own mind. I thought their position was poorly researched and very misinformed and that’s not helpful for the cause of human rights or not helpful for the relations or anything.” SOURCE: https://eutoday.net/
12 Oct 2023,15:57

'Human Rights Situation in Pakistan Remains Cause of Concern'
The US State Department has said the human rights situation in Pakistan remains a cause of concern. The department made the observation in its first assessment of the country's human rights situation, Pakistan-based Dawn newspaper reported. The annual State Department report released on Monday refers to several events that occurred in 2022, including former premier Imran Khan's Azadi March to protest his removal from office. The report also refers to the PTI chairman's claim that his march to Islamabad was impeded due to barriers imposed by the federal government, and that participants were subjected to tear gas and arrests. "Two participants reportedly died, and thousands were arrested by security forces." The document, however, also points out, "There were no reports of restrictions on political parties participating in elections, except for those prohibited due to terrorist affiliations" in 2022. According to the report, during this period, judges ordered media regulatory agencies to enforce constitutional bans on content critical of the military or judiciary, "compelling media to censor politicians' speeches and election-related coverage deemed anti-judiciary or antimilitary." Organisations that monitored press freedom "reported direct pressure on media outlets to avoid content on possible military influence over judicial proceedings against politicians and positive reporting of opposition leaders," the report adds, Dawn reported. The State Department report, however, acknowledges that in the elections held in 2022, "in most areas there was no interference with the right of political parties and candidates to organize campaigns, run for election, or seek votes." The report adds, in Balochistan, however, there were reports that "security agencies and separatist groups harassed local political organisations, such as the Balochistan National Party and the Baloch Students Organisation." As per the State Department, during 2022, its monitors received credible reports of unlawful or arbitrary killings, including extrajudicial killings by the government or its agents; forced disappearances by the government or its agents; torture and cases of cruel, inhuman, and degrading treatment or punishment by the government or its agents. Conditions remained harsh and life-threatening in prisons across Pakistan where arbitrary detention of political and other prisoners also happened. Pakistan also imposes serious restrictions on free expression and media, including violence against journalists, unjustified arrests and disappearances of journalists, censorship, and criminal defamation laws. The report also refers to laws against blasphemy, serious restrictions on internet freedom and substantial interference with the freedom of peaceful assembly and freedom of association. According to Dawn. The report says that Pakistan also has serious government corruption; lack of investigation of and accountability for gender-based violence; and crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting members of racial and ethnic minorities. Crimes involving violence or threats of violence targeting lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or intersex persons are also common, it adds.
24 Mar 2023,22:26

Shah Mahmood Qureshi says ‘KP situation deteriorating rapidly’
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Friday that the security situation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) is deteriorating rapidly. As per details, the former foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that they got to know about the invite through the media but will consult about the participation in the APC. He lambasted the PDM-led government and said that now when the situation got deteriorated, they suddenly remember to fight against terrorism. He said that if the current political instability continued it will ultimately result in an economic crisis. Pakistan cannot move forward if all the political parties are not on the same page. Shah Mehmood Qureshi said that for the last eight-nine months the government’s economic policies are going in the wrong direction. Every citizen and his life is important to them and the Peshawar bomb blast was heartening. He said that on one side the government is arresting the PTI leaders and on the other side they are sending invites for conferences, it is beyond understanding, he added. Earlier, Prime Minister (PM) Shehbaz Sharif invited Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan to an all-parties conference (APC), summoned on February 7 to deliberate on national challenges. It is pertinent to mention here that a powerful blast triggered by a suicide attack rocked a mosque in Peshawar’s Police Lines during the afternoon prayers. According to the latest figures, at least 100 people have been confirmed to have lost their lives in the attack, while almost 169 people were wounded. Security officials said the explosion took place around 1:40pm on Monday as Zuhr prayers were being offered as a result of which the roof of the mosque caved in. The rescue operation is still underway at the mosque site to retrieve the victims. Source:  ARY News 
05 Feb 2023,15:22

Indicators suggest Pak's economic situation would worsen in future: Report
Pakistan's economy still remains critical and several economic indicators suggest that the situation could get worse. Food shortage, depleting energy, and foreign reserves may create a bigger problem in the upcoming winter. Pakistan's recent decision not to purchase oil and gas from Russia even after a shortage in the country may not be just to please the United States (US). It may be a decision taken because of the downfall of Pakistan's economy, Islam Khabar reported. According to Islam Khabar, such a big purchase will need a huge cash outflow as Russia itself is in need of cash itself because of its ongoing war with Ukraine. Islam Khabar reported quoting a statement of Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to 'PBS Newshour' on December 14 in which he had said that the country will not be receiving any oil and gas from Russia. This came just a week after Energy Minister of Pakistan Musadik Malik had completed negotiations and signed papers with their Russian counterpart. And resulting Pakistan will now have to turn to Gulf countries that can full fill energy needs of Pakistan. Islam Khabar reported quoting a report from Dawn that the central bank reserves of Pakistan had dropped from USD 15 billion to just USD 6.7 billion. These dropping foreign incidents will result in the default of foreign loans. And the amount left in the reserves may just be enough to cover one month of imports. Although the United Nations (UN) and other international organizations rushed in to provide help for the floods that hit Pakistan this year. Although the UN had reported that only one-third of the donation needs of Pakistan were met which will end in January 2023. According to Islam Kahabar UN had asked for USD 816 million but the UN NGOs had only received USD 262 million as international help. The situation of the industrial sector also remains critical as the large manufacturing sector dropped by 7.75 percent according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) report which includes textiles and automobiles that contribute a major part to the foreign reserves, according to Islam Khabar. And Pakistan's agriculture has been in a critical situation for a long time now resulting in poor government policies and lack of investment and low automation. All these finally lead to reducing crop yields, reduced farm incomes, and rural poverty. And Pakistan has been an importer of food and cotton for the large textile industry even before the floods hit Pakistan. All these factors contribute to a critical economic condition, and the future seems even more difficult according to indicators.
20 Dec 2022,17:22

Pakistan Cholera outbreak worsens situation in flood-affected Balochistan
The number of Cholera cases in the Zhob district of Balochistan province is once again on the rise, after the recent devastating spell of rains and floods in the province. According to Pakistani newspaper the Dawn, official sources said on Monday that two children have lost their lives while dozens were affected in different areas of Zhob district due to the consumption of contaminated water. The waterborne disease continues to spread in Balochistan as almost all water resources were badly affected by floods and rainfall. The cases were reported in Sharan Babakarkhil and Gastoi Bahlul areas of Zhob where two children have died while several people were also brought to the nearby health facility requiring immediate medical attention. The recent flash floods in the country have contributed to cholera and diarrhea outbreaks as clean drinking water was not available. Sources said that the cholera cases were also reported from Kohlu, Dera Bugti, Jhal Magsi, Noshki, Nasirabad and other areas of the Lasbela district, the Dawn reported. Thousands of people in far-flung areas of the province are still waiting for help from the government and welfare groups as they suffer the aftermath of the devastating floods. This is the second cholera outbreak in Zhob in a month. The spread of cholera had earlier threatened the people who continued to deal with the aftermath of rains and floods. In the earlier outbreak, last month, around a dozen people lost their lives while hundreds were affected. Health authorities had said that over 2,000 cases of cholera were reported in the Zhob district and a majority of the patients were women and children. Balochistan in particular has seen uncharacteristically heavy rains during the monsoon season this year. On Saturday, six more people were killed due to heavy rains and floods in Balochistan, bringing the total tally of dead to 176. The Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) said 176 people have been reported dead amid the heavy rains and floods in the province. The total includes 77 men, 44 women and 55 children, local media reported. Deaths were reported in Bolan, Quetta, Zhob, Dakki, Khuzdar, Kohlu, Kech, Mastoong, Harnai, Qila Saifullah and Sibbi. The authorities said more than 18,000 homes were damaged or demolished due to the floods in the province. Tube wells, solar panels and other forms of communication are severely damaged due to the rains. Disastrous spells of monsoon rains have led to severe damage on six different highways with 670 km length and 16 bridges, PDMA said. Additionally, 1,98,461 acres of crops were destroyed amid the natural disaster. "Balochistan recorded more than 600 per cent above-normal rainfall during these monsoon spells since mid-June while Sindh received 500 per cent more rain. Major cities are being warned against urban flooding, prolonged electricity outages, and flash floods," Pakistan federal minister for Climate Change, Senator Sherry Rehman had said earlier. Rehman said that the effects of climate change continue to exacerbate in the country as it experienced lengthy heat waves and forest fires.   Source: ANI
11 Aug 2022,20:35
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