The number of people suffering acute food insecurity rose in 2023 for the fifth year in a row, according to a UN-led report. Conflicts, extreme weather and economic shocks are worsening the food crisis many people face. Almost 282 million people suffered from acute hunger in 2023, according to a UN-led report released on Wednesday. The report said that conflicts, extreme weather events and economic shocks were fueling food insecurity worldwide. What did the report say about global hunger? The global report on food crises from the Food Security Information Network (FSIN), called the outlook "bleak," adding that the number of people facing food insecurity grew by 24 million compared to 2022. The report was produced jointly by several UN agencies, the European Union, government bodies and NGOs. 2023 was the fifth year in a row that saw a rise in the number of people suffering acute food insecurity. "In a world of plenty, children are starving to death," UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in the report's foreword. "War, climate chaos and a cost-of-living crisis — combined with inadequate action — mean that almost 300 million people faced acute food crisis in 2023," he said. "Funding is not keeping pace with need." Where is food insecurity most prevalent? Major food crises are ongoing in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Syria and Yemen. Last year, food insecurity became more severe in Sudan due to the conflict between the army and the RSF paramilitary, as well as in the Gaza Strip amid Israel's offensive in the Palestinian territory. Worsening conditions in Haiti were due to reduced agricultural production and political instability, with armed gangs taking over parts of the country's capital, Port-au-Prince. The report also warned that the El Nino weather phenomenon could lead to severe drought in western and southern Africa. Several countries in southern Africa have declared national emergencies due to the drought, including Zimbabwe earlier this month and Malawi in March. Some 700,000 people, including 600,000 in Gaza, were on the brink of starvation last year.

Every day the planet loses more and more trees to deforestation, according to a new study. But why are forests so important for us anyway? More than half the habitable land on Earth was once covered in lush forest. Humans have been chopping away at it for 10,000 years, but in the past century, deforestation has accelerated dramatically. Since 1900, an area the size of the United States has been stripped of forest. That's the same amount that was lost in the previous 9,000 years, according to online science platform Our World in Data. And losses are ongoing. Every week in 2023, the planet lost tropical forest cover the size of Singapore, according to a new Global Forest Watch study published by research organization World Resources Institute (WRI). That came to a total of 3.7 million hectares (9.2 million acres) in 2023, although forest loss dropped slightly compared to 2022. Usually forests are cut down to clear land for agriculture — mainly beef, soy and palm oil — or for timber. Others burn down as climate change supercharges wildfires. Record-breaking fires in Canada led to a fivefold increase in forest loss last year.  If forests continue to shrink it may eventually leave the planet unlivable for humans. Most countries have pledged to stop forest loss by 2030 but are nowhere near the levels needed to achieve this. "The world took two steps forward, two steps back when it comes to this past year's forest loss," Mikaela Weisse, Global Forest Watch Director at WRI, said in a statement. Countries such as Colombia and Brazil have reduced rates of tropical forest loss dramatically, but their gains were largely wiped out by huge increases in countries such as Bolivia, Laos and Nicaragua, according to the study data researched by the University of Maryland.  But why are forests so important? Healthy forests ensure humans have enough air to breathe by absorbing carbon dioxide and producing oxygen. Forests also recharge our drinking water and act as natural filters. Their root systems absorb excess nutrients and pollutants from rainfall runoff before it enters aquifers, keeping water safe to consume. Tree roots protect against landslides by holding the soil together, combat flooding after heavy rainfall by aiding water absorption, and in the case of mangrove forests, act as a coastal bulwark during storms by buffering surges.  Forests have a role to play in ensuring we have enough food to eat, too, either through directly harboring fruit and wild animals that people eat, or by supporting agriculture through sheltering pollinators and supplying water.  They directly sustain the livelihoods of 1.6 billion people, providing timber, fuel, food, jobs and shelter. About 300 million people live in forests. As well as human lives, forests support more than 80% of biodiversity on land, including 80% of amphibians, and 75% of birds. Tropical rainforests are especially heavy lifters, holding more than half the world's vertebrate species. When tropical rainforests are cut down, as many as 100 species are made extinct each day, according to international conservation NGO WWF. Biodiversity is fundamental to the ongoing survival of humanity. How are forests and climate change linked? Forests are essential to slowing climate change. Modeling by UN science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), showed that stopping deforestation and restoring trees is fundamental to keeping planetary heating under 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). That's the limit agreed by world leaders in Paris in 2015 to stop the worst effects of the climate crisis.  This is because forests are the largest carbon sinks on the planet alongside oceans and soil. They hold vast quantities of climate-warming gases which are largely released by burning fossil fuels. But when forests are cleared, CO2 is released back into the atmosphere, accelerating climate change. If deforestation is stopped and some 350 million hectares of destroyed and degraded forests are restored, they could sequester 5 gigatons of carbon dioxide each year. That's roughly what the United States emits each year. But it's not just their role in regulating CO2 that affects the atmosphere. Forest also helps to create clouds, which reflect sunlight back into space. They act as a natural air conditioner too when they release moisture into the air through evaporation. Even the shape of tree canopies plays a complex role in wind movements and weather systems. A recent study found forests reduced temperatures in the eastern United States by 1 degree Celsius to 2 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) each year. What can be done to save forests? Reversals in deforestation are possible. In 2023, Brazil reduced primary forest loss by 36%, while losses dipped 49% in Colombia, compared to the previous year, partly thanks to political action. Colombia's gains have largely been driven by a peace process within the country, with negotiations among different armed groups explicitly prioritizing forest conservation. Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has made deforestation a policy goal through strengthened law enforcement, revoking environmentally destructive policies, and recognizing indigenous territories. This was in direct opposition to his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro, whose policies helped drive forest loss in pursuit of economic development.  "Countries can cut rates of forest loss when they muster the political will to do so. But we also know that progress can be reversed when political winds change," said Rod Taylor, WRI's Global Forests Director, in a press call. To counter this yo-yo effect, Taylor said, "the global economy needs to increase the value of standing forests relative to the short-term gains on offer from clearing forests to make way for farms, mines or new roads." How else can forests be protected? Some ways to do this include global initiatives that place a value on forests based on how much carbon they can store. There are also nascent efforts to directly pay residents and landowners who help preserve forested areas. Regulations can help tackle deforestation by focusing on supply chains. The European Union's new Deforestation Regulation, for example, will push companies to ensure imports of cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, rubber, soy and wood items don't come from newly deforested land. Supporting Indigenous communities in healthy forests can help protect against deforestation. About 36% of remaining intact forests are on Indigenous lands, according to the World Bank, and they are shown to be adept at preserving biodiversity. Restoring cleared forests will be integral to achieving the Paris Agreement, and many countries are even looking at afforestation — the practice of establishing a forest where there previously was none. "Bold global mechanisms and unique local initiatives together are both needed to achieve enduring reductions in deforestation across all tropical countries," said forest expert Taylor.

The '2024 National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers' published on March 29 identified barriers to government procurement, intellectual property protection, digital trade, investment and labour rights in Bangladesh. According to the NTE report published by United States Trade Representative Catherine Tai, the United States faces several obstacles in doing business with Bangladesh. Bangladesh faces obstacles in the export of goods and services, foreign direct investment and e-commerce. NTE reports have been published regularly since 1985. This year's NTE report highlights significant foreign trade barriers in 59 markets. According to the report, corruption is a widespread and chronic problem in Bangladesh. And the implementation of anti-corruption laws is not enough. It also said that bribery and extortion are common in commercial transactions despite bribery transactions and gifts being illegal. US companies have also complained that they are forced to pay bribes to get licenses.  The report also mentions that the government has tried to weaken the anti-corruption rules in procurement. According to the report, US companies have complained that it takes a long time to get licenses and tenders approved because government officials in Bangladesh demand bribes.    

The report added that Tibetans face restrictions not only on their right to freedom of assembly, but also on expressing opinions or criticism against the “repressive and unjust government policies, both online and offline” “Even as China ended its draconian zero-Covid policy measures in 2023, Tibetans continue to face escalating crackdowns on freedom of expression, religion and belief,” the Dharamshala-based Tibetan Centre for Human Rights and Democracy said in a report. The annual report released on Wednesday stated that despite numerous calls from the international community to halt its forced assimilation policy, Chinese authorities imposed Chinese-medium education in Tibetan schools and amended local regulations in Tibetan areas to promote Mandarin Chinese. The Tibetan Centre for Human Rights and Democracy (TCHRD) is a registered non-profit human rights organisation based in Dharamshala, Himachal Pradesh. The annual report was prepared by TCHRD’s trilingual research team, working in Tibetan, Chinese and English. The team compiled and analysed information from a wide variety of sources on the human rights situation in Tibet in 2023. The report added that Tibetans face restrictions not only on their right to freedom of assembly, but also on expressing opinions or criticism against the “repressive and unjust government policies, both online and offline”. Under the guise of maintaining social stability, Chinese authorities exercise direct supervision and censorship over all online platforms. “The right to freedom of religion and belief faced further restrictions as Chinese authorities introduced more repressive regulations to exercise total control over the establishment, management and activities of the religious activity sites. Despite the relaxation of zero-Covid restrictions, it made no difference to Tibetan Buddhists, who continued to face restrictions in undertaking religious pilgrimages,” the report further. According to the report, Tibetan detainees continue to face a litany of human rights violations. Those arbitrarily, preventatively or forcefully detained underwent unjust sentencing and torture, resulting in custodial deaths. Incommunicado detention in undisclosed locations without due process also remained a regular practice, leading to lasting health issues and premature deaths among political prisoners upon release. Tenzin Dawa, executive director of TCHRD, said, “In 2023, China was re-elected to the UN Human Rights Council, the United Nation’s premier rights body responsible for protecting and promoting human rights globally. This re-election demonstrates how authoritarian states like China manipulate, obstruct and exploit the international human rights system by waging systematic campaigns to weaken and eviscerate the UN’s ability to enforce global compliance with international human rights standards.” “The injustices and human rights violations in Tibet underscore the urgent need to address the human rights abuses in Tibet perpetrated by Chinese authorities. The Chinese government must release all Tibetans detained for merely exercising their human rights and political freedoms in the political, economic, social, cultural or any other areas of public life,” she said.   Source: Hindustan Times

Foreign Minister Dr Hasan Mahmud has reacted to the reports released by the National Democratic Institute (NDI) and the International Republican Institute (IRI) on the 12th parliamentary election. "It doesn't matter what NDI-IRI says regarding Bangladesh’s election as the national polls were free, fair and impartial," he told reporters after a programme at the  Foreign Service Academy in the capital on Sunday (March 17). Hasan said NDI and IRI have admitted that there was less violence in the 12th parliamentary election compared to the previous elections.  However, IRI and NDI are non-partisan non-governmental organizations that support and strengthen democratic institutions and practices worldwide. These institutes have collectively monitored more than 200 elections in more than 50 countries over the past 30 years.

Amid falling growth rates, low business sentiment, and international investors pulling out due to the crisis-stricken property market, subdued export earnings, and crackdowns on private industry, China is currently facing a critical moment to revive its economy, Al Jazeera reported, citing the analysis of several experts. In 2023, China was able to narrowly beat its economic growth target of 5 per cent, one of its lowest benchmarks in decades. Looking ahead, analysts are expecting the economy to face stiff headwinds in the 'Year of the Dragon'. As business sentiment continues to falter, economists broadly agree that Beijing needs to roll out measures to stimulate more domestic consumption. While some analysts are calling for radical measures to jolt China's economy, expectations are subdued owing to Beijing's aversion to broad-based social spending, according to Al Jazeera. On the other hand, some experts see grounds for optimism beyond the current strains. China is experiencing its longest deflationary run since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Consumer prices fell in January for a fourth straight month and declines look likely to extend into 2024. "China didn't see the boost most people expected after COVID restrictions were removed in late 2022," Kevin P Gallagher, the director of the Boston University Global Development Policy Centre, told Al Jazeera. "Authorities are now keenly aware of the threat of falling prices." Falling prices risk turning into a self-reinforcing cycle if households and businesses postpone purchases in the hope that goods will keep getting cheaper. Deflation also squeezes debtors as the real cost of borrowed money rises. In China's case, where the debt-to-GDP ratio, including local government liabilities, reached 110 per cent in 2022, the situation poses a growing headache for policymakers. Notably, in recent months, Beijing authorities have ramped up support measures to try and stem falling prices - mortgage rates on home purchases have been lowered, and banks have been allowed to hold smaller cash reserves to spur increased lending, Al Jazeera reported. Much of China's deflationary woes can be traced back to its beleaguered real-estate sector, which accounts for 20-30 per cent of GDP. After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, local governments encouraged a debt-fueled construction boom to boost growth. But after decades of rapid urbanisation, housing supply has run ahead of demand. Amid several high-profile developer defaults, including the failure of Evergrande Group, new home sales fell by 10-15 per cent in China last year, according to the Fitch Ratings agency. In turn, Chinese households have become cautious about spending money, especially on property, while a weak social safety net encourages families to save for emergencies. In 2022, household consumption accounted for just 38 per cent of China's GDP. On the other hand, private spending made up 68 per cent of the GDP in the United States that same year. "Households ran down savings during the pandemic," Sheana Yue, a China economist at Capital Economics said. "The real-estate crash undermined consumer confidence even further. China also has an ageing population, and, typically, spending declines with age." The upshot is that gross national savings exceeded 40 per cent in 2023, more than double the US level. "Looking ahead, getting people to spend their savings won't be easy. For decades, economists have encouraged the government to rebalance the economy away from investment in favour of consumption," Yue said. At 42 per cent of GDP, China's rate of investment dwarfs that of other emerging economies, let alone advanced economies - which average 18-20 per cent. In addition to housing stock, Beijing has invested heavily in roads, bridges and train lines. As with housing, however, years of overinvestment have resulted in spare capacity. Revenues at China Railway, for instance, regularly fall short of costs. At the end of 2022, the state-backed agency was 6.11 trillion yuan (USD 886 billion) in debt. "We're seeing the limitations of China's capital-intensive infrastructure model," Yue said. "And given that interest rates are already quite low, Beijing will need to start stimulating consumption to generate high and stable growth." Yue said policymakers should remove incentives to hoard savings by spending more on education, healthcare, and pension provisions. Analysts expect the National People's Congress--China's rubber-stamp parliament -- to again set an annual growth target of about 5 per cent when it meets in March, as reported by Al Jazeera. While many economists have exhorted Beijing to stimulate growth through household transfers, Victor Shih, an expert on the Chinese economy at the University of California, San Diego, expects investment-driven growth to continue to hold sway. "Marxist ideology, which valorises industrial production, remains the fundamental basis for policymaking in Beijing," Shih said. "In all likelihood, the government will continue to subsidise manufacturing. Consumption, by contrast, is viewed as indulgent," Shih added. "There are 1.4 billion people in China, so comprehensive social assistance would be extremely expensive, especially in a deflationary context." Shih said Beijing could raise household consumption by urging companies to pay higher wages but that "China's manufacturing edge is partly based on subdued worker income". As such, "higher wages would undermine Chinese exports, which is an important source of output," he said. "I don't think the government will shift budgetary priorities in favour of the Chinese people... which will likely result in a period of economic weakness." Gary Ng, a senior Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong, said that Beijing has other strategic priorities. "President Xi [Jinping] appears less keen on stimulating rapid growth than he is on optimising the economy for security and resilience," Ng said. In recent years, Beijing has invested heavily in strategic industries like artificial intelligence and advanced computer chips. By moulding industrial policy on the basis of national security, Beijing has set its sights on reducing its reliance on foreign technology and supporting its long-term geopolitical ambitions. At the same time, Ng said, "Beijing has shown a new willingness to invest in more consumer-facing tech sectors, like renewable energy and electric vehicles." "Unlike property, these industries have the capacity to create jobs and promote economic self-sufficiency," he said. Ng also stressed that economic transformation takes time and that "there's no magic pill for lightning-quick growth". "Investment in high-tech sectors should, slowly, reform China's economic base," he said. "Incidentally, private consumption is already on an upward trend." Gallagher, of Boston University, said China's economic growth trajectory is healthier than sometimes portrayed. "It's easy to forget about China's economic development since the 1990s. Growth has slowed from high levels lately but it still tallied at 5.2 per cent last year," Gallagher said. "Forecasts are equally solid for this year." "Hawks have been predicting the demise of China's growth model for decades," Gallagher added. "It is true, however, that to build on China's remarkable success, Beijing has to shake off its timidity about the investment-consumption pivot." Gallagher said 2024 is likely to underscore the urgency of reform amid the possibility of Donald Trump's return to White House, who in his previous term had unleashed a strong trade war against China, Al Jazeera reported. "If Donald Trump is re-elected (in the US) and chooses to engage in a new trade war, Beijing will want to be more self-reliant. The Year of the Dragon could be ideal for China to step up its efforts to unleash domestic consumption," he said.  Source: ANI

A new report by a network of Tibetan researchers titled, “Weaponising Big Data: Decoding China’s Digital Surveillance in Tibet” has uncovered concerning the development of China’s digital surveillance apparatus in Tibet. The report from Turquoise Roof and Tibet Watch reveal alarming state diktats like the installations of ‘National Anti-Fraud Centre’ app on smartphones, initially purported to combat fraud, as part of a broader system of surveillance. The findings revealed the alarming extent to which the app is intertwined with broader surveillance and control mechanisms operated by the Chinese government in Tibet. The dynamic analysis of both the Android and Windows Desktop versions of the app highlighted that the data collected extends far beyond its purported purpose of internet fraud detection. By integrating with databases managed by the Criminal Investigation Bureau, the app becomes a tool not just for detecting fraud but also for facilitating broader surveillance and oversight activities.  The ‘Tibet Underworld Criminal Integrated Intelligence Application Platform’ described in the report appears to be a tool for law enforcement in the so called Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR). Through an analysis of government procurement notices, it was uncovered that this system consolidates data from multiple existing Public Security Bureau systems within the TAR into a central Oracle database. Notably, this database system, built on U.S. technology, plays a pivotal role in a campaign that criminalises even moderate cultural and religious expressions, advocacy for language rights, and social work in Tibet, the report stated. The investigation into the weaponisation of big data analytics in Tibet by the Chinese security state also revealed a concerning trend of governmental intrusion into personal spheres. Beyond its implications for communication, this phenomenon extends to shaping societal norms and behaviours, leading to a pervasive “chilling effect” on individual thoughts, emotions, and social interactions. The widespread surveillance and monitoring facilitated by such technologies not only restrict freedom of expression but also impede genuine human connections, ultimately fostering a climate of fear and mistrust. Moreover, the report suggests that this pervasive surveillance apparatus contributes to a breakdown in societal cohesion, leading to individuals to feel compelled to censor themselves and distance themselves from one another. The integration of various advanced technologies in Tibet, including AI-driven systems that combine facial recognition with internet browsing and app-based monitoring, as well as DNA and genomic surveillance, and GIS tracking data, represents the emergence of a disturbing approach to governance in the 21st century. This convergence of technologies highlighted a shift towards a more intrusive and authoritarian approach to governance, where state control and suppression take precedence over individual liberties and autonomy. The report also uncovered the striking similarities in the deployment of spyware and Universal Forensic Extraction Devices (UFEDs) at police checkpoints in both Tibet and East Turkestan (Ch. Xinjiang). Additionally, sophisticated big data analytics platforms are operational in both regions, albeit with potentially differing specific systems. However, the overarching strategy of control and suppression through intelligence-led policing is evident in both cases.  Moreover, civilian AI-driven surveillance systems deployed in Tibet and East Turkestan (Ch. Xinjiang) can trace their origins back to military Command and Control (C4ISR) systems-of-systems and integrated PLA joint operations doctrine. Chinese software developers have openly acknowledged this evolution, likening cities and towns where people reside in battlefields. This militarised approach emphasises the extent to which the Chinese government views surveillance and control as integral components of its governance strategy in these regions.     Source: Phayul

Of the 513 students who took their lives in the country in 2023. Female students accounted for 60.2 percent of these tragic incidents, with 309 cases, while male student suicides stood at 204, the shocking information was disclosed in a virtual press conference organised by the private organization Anchal Foundation on Saturday (Jan 27). The predominant factors leading students down the path of suicide were identified as vanity and love.   This revelation brings attention to the complex emotional struggles that young individuals face in their academic journeys. The press conference, titled 'Student Suicide in 2023: Now is the Time to Act,' stressed the need for immediate and comprehensive measures to address this growing crisis. The statistics indicate a marginal decrease in the overall student suicide rate compared to the previous year, with 532 recorded cases in 2022.   However, the alarming figure of 513 suicides in 2023 demands urgent attention and intervention. The victims belonged to various educational institutions, with 44 percent being school students, 27 percent college students, 19 percent university students, and over 9 percent madrasa students.   Besides, a significant 67 percent of the victims were aged between 13 and 19 years, highlighting the vulnerability of young students to mental health challenges.   The data further reveals that 19 of the students who committed suicide in 2023 were from public universities, with Dhaka University and Chittagong University recording the highest numbers. The Anchal Foundation emphasized that pride was the leading cause behind these suicides, accounting for more than 32 percent. Other contributing factors included love affairs (15 percent), mental health problems (10 percent), family quarrels (6 percent), domestic violence (over 1 percent), academic pressure (5 percent), failure in exams (4 percent), sexual harassment (3 percent), and humiliation (1 percent).       They emphasised the importance of enhancing social skills to prevent students from feeling isolated and recommend the teaching of patience as a crucial life skill.   The rising number of student suicides in 2023 is a distressing reality that demands immediate attention from educators, policymakers, and society as a whole. Efforts to address the root causes, including pride, and to foster emotional resilience and support systems, must be prioritized to prevent further loss of young lives. The Anchal Foundation's call to action resonates as a wake-up call for all stakeholders to work collaboratively in creating a safer and more supportive environment for students across the country. MAIN CAUSES OF STUDENT SUICIDES 'Emotional distress' emerged as the primary reason behind student suicides in Bangladesh last year, contributing to over 32 percent (165 cases) of these tragedies. Relationships and affairs were the second leading cause, accounting for 14.8 percent of the incidents. Mental health issues were identified in 9.9 percent of the cases, while domestic arguments and abuse contributed to 6.2 percent and 1.4 percent of the suicides. Other significant factors leading to student suicides included academic pressures and performance. Family pressure regarding studies led to 4.5 percent of the cases, while exam failures and underachievement in public exams were responsible for 3.4 percent and 1.8 percent of the suicides. Sexual harassment was also a critical factor, accounting for 2.5 percent of the student suicides, while another 0.8 percent of the cases were due to feelings of humiliation.   DHAKA LEADS IN STUDENT SUICIDE CASES AGAIN In 2023, Dhaka division saw the highest number of student suicides among Bangladesh's eight divisions, with a total of 149 cases, followed Chattogram with 89. In Rajshahi, the number was 77, while Khulna saw 64 cases of student suicides. Both Barishal and Rangpur divisions reported 43 cases each. Mymensingh had 36 student suicides, and Sylhet recorded the lowest number with 12 cases.  

One divergence centers around Beijing's investment data, which shows surging manufacturing and infrastructure spending outweighed the drag from property. Longstanding suspicions about the accuracy of China’s official GDP growth data have spurred a market for alternative calculations, which kicked into action this week after Beijing announced economic expansion for 2023 was in line with its annual target of around 5 per cent.   There’s a consensus that the economy grew last year, propelled by a rebound in consumption after pandemic restrictions were lifted. That’s readily visible in data compiled outside China’s National Bureau of Statistics — such as the number of domestic flights, or the revenue growth of consumer-focused companies. What’s also agreed between official and independent estimates is that a sharp drop in real estate construction, alongside strained local government finances and falling exports, posed downward pressure on the world’s second-largest economy. One divergence centers around Beijing’s investment data, which shows surging manufacturing and infrastructure spending outweighed the drag from property. Others disagree. Overall investment was broadly flat last year, meaning GDP data “significantly overstated” China’s growth in 2023, according to Logan Wright, a director at Rhodium Group. He said the real figure was likely around 1.5 per cent.     Doubts about China’s official investment statistics — which measure spending on things like housing, factories and infrastructure — have been fueled by frequent revisions in recent years, and the latest data implies an unusually large adjustment. Fixed asset investment, or FAI, increased 3 per cent in nominal terms in 2023, the Statistics Bureau said. But it added that the total amount of investment, at 50.3 trillion yuan ($7.1 trillion), couldn’t be directly compared with the amount it reported for 2022 due to factors including “problematic data discovered during statistical law enforcement inspections.”    ‘Staggering’ Adjustment   The FAI growth number for 2023 implies a downward revision of 7 trillion yuan, or 17 per cent of total investment from the amount initially announced for the previous year, according to economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics. They called the adjustment “staggering.” The revision “shows just how problematic these data are,” said Carsten Holz, an economics professor specializing in Chinese statistics at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. Rhodium’s estimate is plausible, he added.   The central statistics bureau lacks authority to enforce accurate reporting on lower-level officials and finds itself in an “increasingly politicized administrative environment,” Holz said. This adds pressure on officials to use “changes to data compilation methods, or outright data fudging, to come up with the data deemed desirable,” he said. Rhodium’s growth estimate for 2023 is at the low end of a broad scale. A sampling of independent estimates gathered by Bloomberg showed others with expansion figures ranging as high as 7.2 per cent. That lack of consensus is one reason the official number endures as a reference point for markets and discussions of China’s economy. Rhodium takes a “bottom-up” approach, gauging the contributions of consumption, investment and net exports to headline growth based on lower-level data, such as real estate investment, credit card lending and government spending. Often, the information still comes from official sources and is more reliable than the headline growth figure, argues Wright.    Different Outcomes   But others taking a similar approach produce different growth estimates. QuantCube Technology’s GDP China Nowcast indicator, which is based on a range of non-official data ranging from air pollution figures to shipping and text analysis of online reports, has “closely matched official releases” this year, the company said. Doubts about China’s GDP data tend to spike when the economy slows, with skepticism peaking after Beijing reported 2022 growth at 3 per cent despite widespread lockdowns. Coronavirus controls that year reduced GDP by 3.9 per cent, according to a forthcoming paper in the China Economic Review based on data from nighttime lights tracked from space.   A lower estimate for growth in 2022 can mean that the 2023 number ends up higher. One example is Fathom Consulting’s bottom-up estimate, based on official data series that econometric techniques suggest are less subject to manipulation. Their verdict: 7.2 per cent growth last year, following 0.9 per cent growth in 2022. “These base effects are over now, and our estimate for 2024 is again back to more ‘normal’ rates,” of around 4 per cent, said Juan Orts, an economist at Fathom. Some economists doubt the accuracy of bottom-up measures altogether. One reason: as China’s economy advances, the structure of activity shifts. Around a decade ago, the “Li Keqiang index” was in vogue, named after China’s former premier, who was cited saying he relied on estimates of electricity use, rail freight volumes and bank loan growth as a proxy for GDP. But it’s fallen out of favor, because China’s economy now consists mainly of services, with heavy industry having a smaller role.   An alternative approach is to take China’s official, nominal GDP numbers — which aren’t adjusted for inflation — and then applying an independent price deflator to come up with a real growth estimate. The approach gained popularity before the pandemic, when China’s official deflator became widely seen as a tool for smoothing out the real GDP expansion rate. However, agreement is lacking on the best deflator.   Pantheon Macroeconomics says real GDP rose about 4.9 per cent last year, using its deflator. But TS Lombard came up with 3.6 per cent using its own adjustment formula. At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., economists have experimented with a measure of growth based on non-Chinese data, relying on figures on imports from China plus a correlation measure between exports and growth. The result for recent years was “fairly consistent with official GDP growth,” they concluded in an October report. Other estimates based on commodity consumption and industrial output were “modestly lower” than official data. “Just how much has China’s economy slowed?” they asked. “This simple question is hard to answer.”     Source: Business Standard

Aiming to change the narrative about the Xinjiang region where China is accused of committing grave human rights abuses, Beijing is organising so-called media tours with friendly countries to somehow propagate a different version of the region, a report by Al Jazeera stated. Under Chinese Chinese President Xi Jinping's vision of "telling the story of Xinjiang" and "confidently propagating the excellent social stability of Xinjiang", at least five such tours took place in 2023 itself. Al Jazeera cited a report of Olsi Jazexhi, an Albanian-Canadian historian and journalist who initially thought that the reports about human rights violations in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) of Western China were "lies". Multiple accounts from people who had fled the area as well as reports from human rights organisations were painting a picture of human rights abuses being perpetrated on a massive scale. Muslim minorities in Xinjiang - the majority of whom are Turkic-speaking Uighurs - were reportedly being deprived of basic freedoms, their cultural and religious heritage was being destroyed and at least 1 million of them had been interned in a vast network of detention camps. The international community had also taken notice and the United Nations had raised its concerns. But Jazexhi was still unconvinced. "I was certain that the stories were a scheme constructed by the US and the West to discredit China and divert attention away from their own human rights records regarding Muslims," he said. Following this, Jazexhi contacted the Chinese embassy and was soon invited to join a media tour for foreign journalists. "I went to defend the Chinese government," he recalled. However, Jazexhi soon found that defending the Chinese narrative was a "far more difficult task" than he had anticipated. In the first few days in Xinjiang, he and other foreign journalists had to sit through a series of lectures given by Chinese officials about the history of the region and its people. "They were portraying the indigenous people of Xinjiang as immigrants and Islam as a religion that was foreign to the region," Jazexhi said. "It was incorrect."His disillusion only continued when he and other journalists were taken by their Chinese hosts to one of the so-called vocational training centres outside the regional capital of Urumqi, according to Al Jazeera. Jazexhi also had a chance to interact with several Uighurs and it quickly became clear they were not the "terrorists" or "extremists" Beijing had claimed. He had thought he was going to expose Western lies but he had instead witnessed oppression on a massive scale. "What I saw was an attempt to eradicate Islam from Xinjiang," he said. Since Jazexhi's visit, the UN Human Rights Council has found that Chinese restrictions and deprivations in Xinjiang may constitute "crimes against humanity". The US government as well as lawmakers in Australia, Canada, France and the United Kingdom have labelled the Chinese treatment of Uighurs and other Turkic-speaking Muslims in the region a genocide. Meanwhile, several countries have imposed economic restrictions on goods from Xinjiang in response to evidence of forced labour in the region, Al Jazeera reported. However, despite all the criticism, Beijing has continued to arrange visits - primarily for diplomats and journalists from Muslim countries - to Xinjiang. Chinese media have reported about at least five such media tours taking place in 2023, with Xinjiang visits also arranged for foreign diplomats and Islamic scholars. Moiz Farooq, who is the executive editor of Daily Ittehad Media Group and Pakistan Economic Net, visited Xinjiang in the middle of December as part of a delegation of media representatives from Pakistan. Like Jazexhi in 2019, Farooq also went to Xinjiang with the intent to observe for himself that the stories he had heard were not true. Unlike Jazexhi, Farooq left Xinjiang impressed by the region's level of development and assured that the local Muslims were largely living a free and content life. Farooq does not believe that accounts and reports from human rights organisations and UN organs detailing human rights abuses in Xinjiang are correct. Naz Parveen is the director of the China Window Institute in Peshawar, Pakistan, and she was on the same tour as Farooq. She too was impressed by the prosperity she observed in Xinjiang. Echoing Beijing's characterisation of the situation, Parveen believes that what have been termed human rights violations in Xinjiang can be more accurately described as "law enforcement operations targeting religious extremism", according to Al Jazeera. On another tour of Xinjiang in September, Chinese state broadcaster CGTN quoted columnist and Filipino politician Mussolini Sinsuat Lidasan praising Chinese "anti-terrorism" measures in Xinjiang. On the same tour, Donovan Ralph Martin, who is the editor of the Daily Scrum News in Canada, was likewise quoted by CGTN as saying that "absolutely, there is freedom of religion in Xinjiang, and anybody who does not say that is ignorant". Notably, in 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for "telling the story of Xinjiang" and "confidently propagating the excellent social stability of Xinjiang". Canadian-Uighur activist Rukiye Turdush sees the media tours as integral to that mission. "He wants to change the narrative about Xinjiang," she said. Henryk Szadziewski is a senior researcher at the NGO Uyghur Human Rights Project. He says media tours, like the ones in Xinjiang, are a common tactic employed by countries that have something to hide. Turdush does not attach much credibility to conclusions reached by foreign journalists based on talks with Uighurs who have been living in an environment of fear for years and been subjected to heavy surveillance as well as state propaganda. "Few Uighurs and other Turkic people in Xinjiang have much choice other than to stay silent or echo Chinese propaganda," she said. Australian journalists on a media tour in September reported they spoke to a souvenir vendor who had not been provided by their tour guides. The vendor said that he had spent time at an internment camp but when the journalists started to ask more questions, a person suddenly appeared and began to film the vendor's answers, Al Jazeera reported. Even former UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet found her long-delayed visit carefully "choreographed". But her final report, released moments before she left office, found China had probably committed "crimes against humanity" in Xinjiang. However, in recent years, security measures in Xinjiang seem to have been relaxed according to Maya Wang, an associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch. Detention camps have been closed down and police checkpoints have been removed. Instead, a vast network of sophisticated facial-recognition security cameras has reportedly been established throughout the region, while people who were previously detained in camps have been transferred into China's opaque prison system, Al Jazeera reported. At the same time, information flowing in and out of Xinjiang remains tightly controlled, while Xinjiang residents are punished for having unauthorised contact with people outside China. "The genocide is still happening but it is just much more covert now," Turdush said. Despite the controversy surrounding the organised tours, both Turdush and Jazexhi believe that foreign journalists and officials should continue to visit Xinjiang as long as they challenge the narratives that are presented to them. "They should go," Jazexhi said. "And they should speak the truth about what they see in Xinjiang and what they don't see."