• Dhaka Fri, 19 APRIL 2024,
logo
Markets defy risks from Iranian attack on Israel
The global economy has so far shrugged off the Iranian strike on Israel. Important markets like oil had already priced in a possible attack, while gold and stock markets only moved slightly. Many investors are holding their breath after Iran's unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel starting on April 13. The aerial strike was the first direct attack launched from Iranian territory and came the same day Iran's Revolutionary Guards forcefully detained an Israel-linked container ship near the Strait of Hormuz.  The Iranian attack had been largely anticipated after Israel destroyed part of the Iranian embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, on April 1. Still, experts are waiting to see if the conflict between the two countries escalates, even as the United Nations and the United States put pressure on Israel to show restraint. Most businesses don't like uncertainty and the possibility of wider open warfare has the region on edge.   Middle East oil and energy prices If the conflict grows and engulfs more of the Middle East, the biggest risk for the global economy is the response in the energy markets, especially oil prices. "A rise in oil prices would complicate efforts to bring inflation back to target in advanced economies but will only have a material impact on central bank decisions if higher energy prices bleed into core inflation," Neil Shearing, group chief economist at consultancy Capital Economics, wrote in a note to clients. So far, though, oil prices have not moved much since the attack. It seems that the market had already taken the current unstable situation into account and was not spooked over the weekend by the retaliatory strike. OPEC+ and its spare capacity In fact, Brent crude oil prices rose from $83 per barrel a month ago to over $90 per barrel last week where they have stayed, "spurred in part by concerns about supplies and geopolitical risks from conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine," wrote Shearing. The economist pointed out another reason for calm on the oil market is a push by some OPEC+ members to increase production quotas. "A rise in oil supply will obviously help to limit any rise in its price," whether because of increased tensions or supply chain problems like dangerous Red Sea shipping routes. Jorge Leon, a senior vice president at energy analyst Rystad Energy, agrees. Though OPEC+ has a complicated job to coordinate and manage the oil market, it is likely to unwind voluntary production cuts at a meeting in June, he wrote in a note on Monday. This could release six million barrels a day in spare capacity to limit price pressures, since it is in the group's interest to avoid a global energy crisis.  Inflation could impact growth If oil prices did go up and remained high it could fuel global inflation at a time when several countries are suffering from long-term high inflation. This "sticky inflation" is "something that could create a dilemma for central banks, as we also found out after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022," argued Deutsche Bank analysts in a note to clients.   "On the one hand, there is the risk that a geopolitical shock hurts growth, bringing forward the timing of rate cuts," according to the bank. Investing in all that glitters As for stocks, when markets opened on Monday, many Asian equity indices like the Nikkei were lower. "But that partly reflects a catchup to the selloff that already took place on Friday after they'd closed, when headlines came through suggesting that an attack could happen," wrote the Deutsche Bank analysts. For their part European markets opened higher. Overall, the analysts don't see much change among key assets since Friday "with investors hopeful that any escalation will prove contained." One small sign of investors looking for a safer investment was the increase in the price of gold. On Monday, it was up 0.51% to just over $2,356 (€2,211) an ounce. It is still early and the conflict could widen and pull in other countries, lead to more US sanctions on Iran, or damage or destroy oil infrastructure. Some Western airlines temporarily suspended flights into the region, other have rerouted flights to avoid Middle Eastern airspace. If Iran or Houthi rebels continue to target Israel-linked ships in the important trade route through the Strait of Hormuz, "a risk of false targeting and collateral damage exists," according to Ambrey, a maritime risk management company. This or another aerial attack could further pull in the US, drive up global shipping costs and cause havoc for the world economy.    
15 Apr 2024,19:46

Iran's attack on Israel: UN warns region 'on the brink'
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres made a plea for "maximum restraint following" Iran's attacks against Israel. A UN Security Council emergency meeting convened at 4 p.m. local time (2000 GMT/UTC) in New York, after Israel's ambassador to the UN appealed for a rapid condemnation of Iran's attack overnight.  "The Middle East is on the brink. The people of the region are confronting a real danger of a devastating full-scale conflict. Now is the time to defuse and de-escalate," Gutteres said while opening the session.  "Neither the region nor the world can afford more war," Guterres said. He also warned all UN members that any retaliation with force would be illegal under international law. Sunday's Security Council meeting was not considering any draft resolution or motion, it was a first call to discuss the situation, starting roughly 24 hours after Iran's attack was launched. It adjourned once all named speakers had contributed.   Ambassadors from various other UN members — including Russia, China, South Korea, Sierra Leone, Syria, the UK, France, Algeria and more — all contributed to the meeting in New York late on Sunday.  This concludes our weekend updates on Iran's aerial attack against Israel.  Iranian ambassador claims Tehran had 'no choice' Iran's ambassador repeated Tehran's claim that it was responding in "self-defense" after the April 1 explosion at its Damascus consulate in Syria, for which Iran blamed Israel.  "The Security Council... failed in its duty to maintain international peace and security," after that explosion, Amir Saeid Iravani said during Sunday's session.  Therefore, he said the Islamic Republic "had no choice" but to react, and described the reaction as "necessary and proportionate."  He claimed his country did not "seek escalation or war," but also warned it would respond to any "threat or aggression."  "If the US initiates military operations against Iran, its citizens, or its security and interests, Iran will use its inherent right to respond proportionately," he said. Iran must 'pay a heavy price,' Israeli ambassador tells Security Council Israel's ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, accused Iran of violating international law with the attack. Erdan called on the 15-member council to condemn Iran, reimpose sanctions and designate Iran's Revolutionary Guards a terror organization. "The snooze button is no longer an option. The only option is to condemn Iran and utilize every means necessary to make them pay a heavy price for their horrible  crimes," Erdan told the council. Erdan also played a video on a tablet that he said showed Israel's interception of Iranian drones above Jerusalem's Al-Aqsa mosque compound, one of Islam's holiest sites. "Here, you can look at it," he gestured with the tablet and told the Iranian ambassador to cast his eyes over the footage. White House says US would not join attack on Iran The White House has ruled out any participation by the US in a possible Israeli retaliation against Iran. "We're not looking for a wider war with Iran," White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on NBC's "Meet the Press," adding that the United States does not "want to see this escalate." According to a White House official, US President Joe Biden told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to "think carefully" about his response. Kirby said Netanyahu was "well aware" of Biden's position following a call between the two leaders soon after Iran launched the attack. US forces said they shot down some 70 drones and between four and six ballistic missiles during Iran's overnight attack.      
15 Apr 2024,18:52

6 dead in Sydney shopping mall stabbing attack
Six people are dead and several others injured after a man went on a stabbing rampage in a shopping mall in Sydney, Australia, on Saturday afternoon local time, one of the country’s worst mass killings in recent years. The suspect was shot dead. Eyewitnesses described “pandemonium” as they fled from the attack, with many forced to hide in shops. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said the attack was “beyond words and understanding,” but amid the “shocking violence,” there were glimmers of heroism. New South Wales police commissioner Karen Webb said four women and a man died at the shopping mall, while a fifth woman later died at the hospital. Webb added that eight additional people are being treated for injuries at hospitals in Sydney. A nine-month-old baby is confirmed to be among the injured and has been in surgery, Webb said. Australian media outlets have reported that the baby’s mother had died, but Webb could not confirm the reports. A police inspector shot the attacker dead on the scene. Police believe the suspect was a 40-year-old man who acted alone, but could not provide further identification details. Early indications suggest the attack was not terror-related. The police officer who shot the suspect is being hailed as a “hero,” with Albanese saying, “There is no doubt that she saved lives through her action.” The officer was nearby when the violence unfolded and shot the attacker when he raised his knife at her, police said. Eyewitnesses described panic and “pandemonium” as fleeing shoppers fell over each other and hid in shops. One woman, Crystal Wang, told CNN she hid in a clothing store for over an hour with other shoppers. Another man told Australia’s state broadcaster ABC that the attacker was stabbing people “indiscriminately.” The attack has shocked Australia, a country where mass casualty events are rare. The deadliest in its history was an April 1996 mass shooting in the town of Port Arthur, Tasmania, that killed 35 people and became known as the Port Arthur massacre. More recently, at least four people were killed and one injured in a mass shooting in the northern city of Darwin in 2019.   Source: CNN
13 Apr 2024,23:14

Iranian embassy attack has Israel, Middle East on edge
Iran has accused Israel of conducting a deadly airstrike against its embassy in Syria. Tehran has now threatened to retaliate, amid growing fears the conflict in Gaza could spread. Here's what you need to know. Israel remains on high alert, with a growing number of media reports indicating that the Islamic Republic is preparing to retaliate for a recent missile barrage on its diplomatic compound in Syria. Iran has accused Israel of carrying out the deadly airstrike, but Israel has so far denied responsibility. Quoting a US intelligence report on Friday, The Wall Street Journal suggested Iran could launch a retaliatory attack within the next 24 to 48 hours. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian conveyed Tehran's determination to respond to the bombing of its consular building during a phone call with his German counterpart, Annalena Baerbock, on Thursday. A day earlier, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retaliation, equating the attack on its embassy to an assault on Iranian soil. This prompted a response by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Whoever harms us, we will harm them," he said on Thursday, in remarks translated from Hebrew. "We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the state of Israel, both defensively and offensively." Here's an overview of how the situation has unfolded over the past two weeks. What exactly happened in Damascus? On Monday, April 1, an explosion hit a building on the busy Fayez Mansour Road in the western Mezzeh district of Syria's capital Damascus, destroying the consulate in the Iranian embassy complex.  More than 10 people were killed, among them two high-ranking members of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps: Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a commander in the Quds Force, and his deputy, Mohammad Hadi Haji Rahimi. Zahedi was said to have been particularly closely connected to the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The building was also the residence of the Iranian ambassador to Damascus, Hossein Akbari. He survived the explosion, as he was in the adjacent embassy building at the time of the attack. According to Akbari, six rockets fired from F-35 fighter jets hit the consulate building in quick succession. Syria's Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said aircraft had fired missiles from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. What is the Quds Force? The attack is a severe blow for Iran. The Quds Force is an elite unit of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), specializing in foreign deployments. Officially, it numbers around 5,000 fighters and answers directly to Khamenei. The Quds Force was founded in the early 1980s, during the Iran-Iraq war, to actively spread the goals of the 1979 Islamic Revolution throughout the Muslim world. "Al-Quds" is the Arabic name for Jerusalem, and it reflects the aims of the group: To capture the city, which Muslims, Jews and Christians regard as holy, is one of the organization’s principal, long-term goals. To this end, the Quds Force collaborates with other militant Islamist organizations, such as the Palestinian Hamas, or Hezbollah in Lebanon.  The United States has classified these groups as terrorist organizations, and Germany has followed suit for Hamas and Hezbollah. The IRGC has not been placed on Germany's or the EU's list of terrorist groups, despite repeated calls. Senior members of the Quds Force are regularly active as "military advisers" in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, where they help coordinate military and paramilitary organizations, increasing Tehran's influence in these countries. Why is Israel attacking targets in Syria? As a rule, Israel’s army does not comment on attacks in Syria, and so far has not made any statement about this one. However, Israel's air force does often bomb targets in Syria and Lebanon. These attacks have increased in frequency since Israel launched its ongoing military operation in Gaza last year.  On Sunday, the Israeli army allegedly fired four rockets at a military research facility just outside Damascus. Just two days prior, more than 50 people were killed in heavy airstrikes in the province of Aleppo, in northwestern Syria. They were said to have been mostly Syrian military personnel and members of Hezbollah militias. Israel and its allies have also repeatedly carried out targeted killings of senior members of the Quds Force. A US drone strike four years ago that killed the organization's leader, Qassim Soleimani, attracted considerable attention. However, the recent suspected airstrike in Damascus is especially sensitive because it targeted an Iranian embassy building. According to the international agreements in the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, the building is Iranian property, but not sovereign territory as Khamenei had suggested. How might Iran retaliate? Over the past few days, Foreign Minister Amirabdollahian has been meeting with counterparts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Turkey. The Reuters news agency reported on Thursday that during his visit to Oman, Amirabdollahian conveyed to Washington that Iran intends to respond to Israel's attack on its Syrian embassy with caution, aiming to prevent a significant escalation and avoid hasty actions. Many analysts speculate that Iran is seeking to sidestep direct confrontation with Israel, a move that could divert global attention from Israel's ongoing assault in Gaza that has brought the nation under mounting international scrutiny. According to most recent estimates from the Hamas-run Health Ministry, at least 34,000 Palestinian civilians have been killed, 13,000 or whom were children, and 1.7 million Palestinians displaced by Israel's military operations. On the social media platform X, formerly Twitter, Thomas Juneau, an international affairs professor at the University of Ottawa, said Iran was pursuing a delicate balancing act. He explained that Iran needed to take a measure that signaled strength domestically, and to regional partners and adversaries while simultaneously trying to avoid escalation and all-out war. He described this approach as "hard and very risky, but not impossible."
13 Apr 2024,17:57

US restricts travel for diplomats in Israel amid fears of Iran attack
The United States has restricted travel for its embassy personnel in Israel amid fears of an attack by Iran. The US embassy said staff had been told not to travel outside the greater Jerusalem, Tel Aviv or Beersheba areas "out of an abundance of caution". Iran has vowed to retaliate, blaming Israel for a strike on its consulate in Syria 11 days ago, killing 13 people. UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron has phoned his Iranian counterpart to urge against further escalation. Israel has not claimed responsibility for the consulate attack but is widely considered to have been behind it. Iran backs Hamas, the armed Palestinian group fighting Israel in Gaza, as well as various proxy groups throughout the region, including some - such as Hezbollah in Lebanon - that frequently carry out strikes against the Israelis. Those killed in the consulate attack included a senior commander of Iran's elite Quds Force in Syria and Lebanon, as well as other military figures. The attack came at a time of continuing diplomatic efforts to prevent the war in Gaza spreading across the region. Speaking on Wednesday, US President Joe Biden warned Iran was threatening to launch a "significant attack" and vowed to offer "ironclad" support to Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government was ready to meet any security challenge, warning that Israel would harm any country that caused it harm. "We are prepared to meet all of the security needs of the State of Israel, both defensively and offensively," he said. The commander responsible for US operations in the Middle East, Erik Kurilla, has travelled to Israel for talks with officials on security threats. The Pentagon said the visit had been scheduled previously but had been brought forward "due to recent developments". Following a call with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Lord Cameron said he had "made clear... that Iran must not draw the Middle East into a wider conflict". "I am deeply concerned about the potential for miscalculation leading to further violence," he said. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken to the foreign ministers of China, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to argue that further escalation is not in anyone's interest. Following the call, China urged the US to play "a constructive role" in the Middle East, while also condemning the strike widely believed to have been carried out by Israel on Iran's consulate building in Damascus. It is not clear what form any reprisal attack would take nor whether it would come directly from Iran or via one of its proxies. On Sunday an Iranian official warned Israel's embassies were "no longer safe", suggesting a consulate building could be a possible target.   Source: BBC
12 Apr 2024,16:50

Russia places Moscow attack suspects in pre-trial custody
A Moscow court has handed terrorism charges to four suspects arrested in the wake of a deadly attack on the Crocus City Hall. Moscow's Basmanny district court on Monday ordered the pre-trial detention for two months of all four suspects in Friday's deadly concert hall attack. Russian President Vladimir Putin has promised to punish those behind the attack at the Crocus City Hall, in which the death toll has now risen to at least 137. What happened in the courtroom? The four main suspects between the ages of 19 and 32, and identified in Russian media as Tajik nationals, were charged with committing a deadly group terrorist attack. They face a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.  The suspects began to appear in court shortly before 11 p.m. local time on Sunday with bruises visible on their faces. One of the men, in a wheelchair and wearing a hospital gown, was reportedly brought from intensive care. All four appeared separately, being led into a cage in the courtroom by Federal Security Service officers. Two of the defendants pleaded guilty, the court said. The four, allegedly the gunmen in Friday's attack, are among 11 people arrested by police in connection with the incident. What we know about the attack Sunday had been declared a day of national mourning with events canceled and flags lowered to half-staff. Russia mourns the terror victims of Crocus City Hall The attack on the concert hall was the deadliest such incident in Russia in the last two decades. Camouflage-clad gunmen burst into the venue and sprayed people with bullets just before Soviet-era rock group Picnic was set to perform its hit "Afraid of Nothing." The so-called "Islamic State" offshoot "Islamic State Khorasan Province" (ISKP), which is based in Afghanistan and Pakistan, has claimed responsibility for the attack. The militant group has since released footage of the incident and US officials have said they believe the claim. The Kremlin on Monday said it would not comment on the ISIS-K claims of responsibility. "The investigation is ongoing. No coherent version has been voiced yet. We are talking only about preliminary data," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.  Peskov added that President Vladimir Putin had no plans to visit the site of the attack. The four main suspects were reportedly detained in the Bryansk region, about 340 kilometers (210 miles) southwest of Moscow. Putin has not publicly mentioned the Islamist group's involvement but said the attackers were trying to escape to Ukraine. Kyiv has strongly denied any connection.
25 Mar 2024,17:03
  • Latest
  • Most Viewed