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Russia-Ukraine conflict: Likely impact on BRI
International Desk
26 May 2022, 20:47
Photo: Collected
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has important implications for the regional and international landscape. With the increasing international influence of China, changes in the geo-political situation will have an increasing impact on China too. The continued escalation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict makes it imperative for Beijing to examine major strategic issues related to the Belt and Road Initiative’s (BRI) westward expansion, China’s peripheral security, and “strategic competition between China and the US”.
China Chengxin International (CCXI), a domestic credit rating agency, in its assessment of how Russia’s war in Ukraine may affect the BRI, acknowledges the short-term shock, the war has brought to the BRI, with China-Europe freight rail services through Ukraine stopped or rerouted. The Chinese projects in Ukraine valued at US$ 6.64 billion in total have also largely halted.
However, CCXI gives a positive projection for mid-to-long-term. It also claims that Europe’s need for economic recovery would widen the space for bilateral economic cooperation.
Some Chinese think-tanks also underline that the ongoing conflict may affect China’s economic security in the BRI. In the short run, it is likely to increase transport risks along the BRI route. In the long run, as sanctions against Russia intensify and conflicts escalate, China’s investment risk along the BRI may increase.
Construction of northern route of BRI may be seriously affected coupled with economic stagnation in Central Asian countries, which may also affect the construction of BRI.
In order to counter any sluggishness in the BRI advancement, Chinese experts view that in the short term, Beijing should strengthen economic and trade cooperation with Russia and continue to promote cooperation between China and the countries along the BRI.
At the same, they suggest that Beijing should take into account Russia’s concerns while enhancing cooperation with the BRI countries in order to prevent building of any perception that China has “profited from Russia’s misfortune” to increase its influence in the countries along the BRI, particularly Central Asia.
Besides, Beijing should also establish strategic communication with Russia and Ukraine to obtain timely and accurate information on the military actions taken by the countries in order to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and economic security in Ukraine, and safeguard China’s trade and security with the BRI countries.
Some scholars underscore that on the diplomatic front, China should unleash propaganda to solemnly state its position on the peaceful resolution of the conflict, and actively call on the parties concerned to continue dialogue and consultation to seek reasonable solutions to each other’s concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect.
The continued escalation of the Russian-Ukraine conflict makes it imperative for China to examine major strategic issues related to the BRI. The BRI optimists in China claim that there will be a breakthrough in construction of the central and southern (Europe) route of BRI and note that the ongoing conflict will prove to be conducive to expanding the influence of the BRI and SCO.
Source: POREG
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Brazil: Hundreds of homes destroyed in deadly floods
A severe storm has triggered flooding and landslides in southeastern Brazil, with heavy rain forcing thousands to flee.
Heavy rains have brought destruction to Brazil, killing at least 25 people and forcing thousands more to flee as flooding and landslides destroy swaths of property in the country's mountainous southeast.
With more rain expected on Sunday, rescuers in the states of Espirito Santo and Rio de Janeiro raced to rescue trapped citizens.
Dozens of soldiers, firefighters and rescue dogs are currently carrying out search and rescue operations.
Authorities have described the scene as "chaotic."
What do we know so far?
So far, 15 deaths have been reported in Espirito Santo, 13 of them in the town of Mimoso do Sul. State authorities said more than 5,400 people had been evacuated from affected areas, where more than 270 homes were destroyed.
The casualties in Rio state include four people who lost their lives when a landslide hit the popular tourist destination of Petropolis, causing a house to collapse.
Rescue workers rescued more than 90 people across the state, according to officials.
Climate change turbocharging severe storms
The southern hemisphere's late summer season is often marked by periods of heavy rain. However, climate change has been singled out as an extreme weather accelerant.
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva acknowledged that fact when expressing sympathy for victims on X, formerly Twitter.
Lula said this weekend's storm had left thousands homeless and pledged that his government would continue to work with state and local officials to "protect, prevent and repair flood damage."
The storm did not come unannounced, as meteorologists had predicted heavy rainfall and state authorities in Rio called a holiday, urging residents to stay inside. Even so, the sheer amount of rain has proven to be overwhelming to authorities managing the crisis.
Over 30 centimeters (11.8 inches) of rain fell in Petropolis on Saturday alone, according to news agency Agencia Brasil. The area's monthly average for March is around 14 centimeters.
The storm comes on the heels of a massive heat wave that saw humidity drive the local heat index (the perceived sense of heat based on humidity and air temperature) above 62 degrees Celsius (143 degrees Fahrenheit).
China’s Military Has One Mission: Prove It Can Invade Taiwan
Recent drills should serve as a reminder that China’s Communist Party (CCP) has laid claim to the self-ruling island nation of Taiwan as Chinese territory. Taiwan is considered a breakaway province that will be returned to mainland control and by force if necessary.
China’s Navy Flexes Blue Water Muscles: A Glimpse into PLAN’s Expansive Maritime Operations and a Taiwan War Scenario - The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is conducting multiple operations this week, a sign of its continuing transition from a coastal defense force to a true blue water force. On Monday, a report published by Japan’s Defense Ministry showed three Chinese PLAN vessels transiting from the East China Sea to the Sea of China over the weekend via the Tsushima Strait. The warships are likely preparing for naval exercises with the Russian Navy.
The Sea of Japan—known in the two Koreas as the East Sea—is a crowded waterway home to five nations’ commercial and strategic sea lines. It is also a go-to test site for North Korea’s ballistic missiles, while the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet is headquartered in the closed town of Fokino on the Peter the Great Gulf.
The Chinese warships were reported to be the Type 054A frigate Daqing, the Type 903A replenishment ship Kekexilihu, and the Type 052D guided-missile destroyer (NATO reporting name Luyang III) Huainan. According to Newsweek, all three vessels are assigned to the PLAN’s North Sea Fleet under the Northern Theater Command.
Although neither Beijing nor Moscow has announced any planned exercises, the Russian Navy’s Pacific Fleet was already active in the region and conducted combat drills against a simulated group of sea drones, according to Russian state media reports. China and Russia last held joint naval exercises in the Sea of Japan in July 2023.
The deployment of the vessels from the PLAN’s North Sea Fleet followed live-fire exercises in the South China Sea, which included a group of Type 072III and Type 072A tank landing ships. These ships undertook training courses, including live-fire shooting against sea mine targets and side-by-side mooring.
The vessels engaged in multi-course realistic combat exercises in an undisclosed area. At the same time, the Type 072 landing ships are designed to operate in waters nearer to the coast, ground on the shore, and then offload vehicles, troops, and cargo. The Chinese state-owned Global Times highlighted that the Type 072’s characteristics make them particularly useful in safeguarding China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights over islands and reefs in the South China Sea.
Combined Force Drills
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command further conducted a series of joint combat exercises with the China Coast Guard (CCG) across multiple maritime regions amid rising tensions in the Taiwan Straits. The combined forces included units from the PLAN and People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF).
Though the CCG is a maritime security force that falls under the jurisdiction of law enforcement rather than the Chinese military, it has increasingly operated alongside the PLAN—and is seen by Western observers as essentially an auxiliary naval force. Its role has evolved significantly, and Beijing’s enactment of the new CCG law authorizes it to enforce China’s maritime claims beyond the boundaries recognized by the United Nations Convention and the Laws of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Target Taiwan
The multiple drills should serve as a reminder that China’s Communist Party (CCP) has laid claim to the self-ruling island nation of Taiwan as Chinese territory. Taiwan is considered a breakaway province that will be returned to mainland control and by force if necessary.
5 Chinese workers killed in bombing
A convoy of Chinese engineers was targeted by an attacker driving an explosive-laden vehicle, according to local authorities of Pakistan.
Authorities in Pakistan said on Tuesday that five Chinese nationals were among six people killed in a suicide attack in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Regional police chief Mohammad Ali Gandapur said a convoy carrying Chinese engineers was targeted by a suicide bomber who rammed an explosive-laden vehicle into them.
"Five Chinese nationals and their Pakistani driver were killed in the attack," Gandapur told news agencies.
What we know about the attack
The senior police official said the victims had been traveling from Islamabad to their camp in Dasu in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province — which is the site of the Dasu hydroelectric dam, currently being constructed by the China Gezhouba Group Company.
The attack took place along a winding, mountainous road that runs alongside a deep ravine.
Previously in 2021, a bus transporting engineers to the same site was targeted in an attack that killed 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals.
China has invested heavily into Pakistan's infrastructure over the past few years as part of the .
The Chinese projects have led to a level of resentment in some local quarters, with separatist groups claiming those from the region benefit little, with most jobs going to outsiders.
No group has claimed responsibility for the attack, but Islamist militants linked to the Pakistani Taliban have previously targeted Chinese interests in Pakistan.
Japan's yen dips to 34-year low against US dollar
The Japanese yen has hit its lowest level against the dollar in decades, even after Japan's central bank announced a hike in interest rates.
Currency markets saw Japan's yen dip to its lowest point against the dollar in more than three decades on Wednesday.
The fall has raised speculation that authorities might intervene in market trading to prop up the currency.
What's happening with the yen?
The yen fell to 151.97 against the dollar — the lowest point since 1990 — before rallying slightly. The dollar was last down at 151.19.
In the past two years, the yen has weakened significantly from roughly 115 against the dollar before Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
In a historic shift in monetary policy, Japan increased interest rates this month for the first time since 2007. However, this has done little to stablize the falling price of the yen, given that Japan's benchmark interest rates remain among the lowest in the developed world and are not expected to rise much further.
A weaker yen makes exports from Japan cheaper. However, it also drives up import costs and energy prices for consumers in the world's fourth-largest economy.
In a sign of concern about the need to shore up the currency, the Bank of Japan, the Finance Ministry, and Japan's Financial Services Agency held a meeting late in Tokyo trading hours.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said earlier that authorities could adopt "decisive steps" against yen weakness.
Bankrupt banks and higher interest: Are startups in crisis?
"Now we are watching market moves with a high sense of urgency," he told reporters.
The government could intervene directly in the currency market, buying large amounts of yen and usually selling dollars for the Japanese currency. Tokyo last took such action in 2022 when the yen was also floundering.
Why is the yen so low?
Japan last week raised interest rates for the first time since 2007 in a move that marked a historic shift in monetary policy.
Despite the rise in interest rates from negative territory, the cost of borrowing in Japan remains very low at 0 to 0.1%.
For investors, the US — which adopted an aggressive policy of hiking rates to tamp down inflation — offers a far more attractive rate of 5.25 to 5.5%, with a cut not priced in until July.
The value of the Japanese yen has already fallen more than 7% this year against the dollar.
Meanwhile, the dollar is on track for solid quarterly gains after investors tempered their expectations of big interest rate cuts in light of strong economic data and the reluctance from central bankers.
Decoding China’s Neo-Colonist practices in Africa
China’s interest in the African continent has been decades in the making. The Asian giant’s increased economic activities in African countries have raised significant concerns about the nature of its engagements in the continent, with many analysts and civil society groups drawing attention to worrying trends in China’s engagements in the continent.
These concerns stem from Beijing’s tendencies of deploying neo-colonist measures such as self-interested economic engagements spanning from high-interest loan lending for development projects to one-sided trade activities among others. With China becoming Africa’s largest trading partner and with trade volumes reaching billions of dollars annually, the concerns raised by civil society groups are attempting to signal towards the onset of a larger China problem in the continent.
The ‘China problem’ throughout Africa
Beijing has over the years become the largest bilateral creditor to African countries by providing financial loans for developmental projects to over thirty African countries including Angola, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Cameroon, Zambia and Republic of Congo amongst many others in recent years. These financial loans have led to the continent owing Chinese creditors over $93 billion dollars up until 2022 and is expected to reach an all-time high figure of around $153 billion in the upcoming years.
Moreover, in its expansionist quest, Beijing has also overtaken major financial institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF and other traditional creditors all together and is the world’s largest official creditor currently. The Asian giant also has an outstanding claim of more than 5% of the globe’s total GDP and more than a dozen under-developed and developing countries own finances of at least 20% of their GDPs to China.
Under the pretext of developmental projects, China has masqueraded their economic assistance to nations that have been financially volatile due to various reasons. For instance, countries like Zambia, Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya amongst others have been pushed in to economic crisis more so due to high interested loans that have been granted by China’s developmental banks. The practice of ‘hidden debts’ in loan agreements has also caused major setbacks to volatile economies in Africa.
The BRI project alone has caused lower and middle-income countries with hidden debts amounting to around $385 billion until 2020 and is expected to far exceed the figure in the coming years. The Chinese side on its part has gone on record to demand for strict discretion on details of MoU’s that have been signed. This has subsequently left very little room for manoeuvring for these volatile economies in the continent subjecting them to be left at the behest of Chinese authorities.
The case of Kenya and Zambia as reminders for the African continent
In 2022, protests broke out in Kenya due to the economic turmoil caused by the high indebtedness to Chinese lenders, with protesters calling for greater transparency in contract details of MoU’s signed with Chinese authorities over the period of five years. Up until last year, Beijing-based companies as well as the Chinese government amounted for around a third of Kenya’s debt overall debt.
The protests in the African country forced the government to release partial details of the loan agreements which brought out the true imperialistic tendencies showcased by Chinese firms as well as the government. According to the contract details released by Kenya’s Transport department the details pertained to one of Kenya’s most ambitious projects taken under China’s behest – The Standard Guage Railway initiative. The project during its inception was agreed to be paid by the Exim Bank of China, in addition to the loans granted by the Exim Bank.
The Kenyan government had previously declared in 2020, that it had financial dues amounting to over 38 billion shillings to Afristar, a Chinese owned firm for the same project. This took the overall borrowing for the railway project above and over to 420 billion shillings from China.
In the released details it was also revealed that the Kenyan government was bound by the terms of the contract to keep the details secretive even though unfavourable terms had been agreed upon in the MoU. Until the details were made public, observers noted that Chinese contracts with developing countries usually included clauses in which borrower countries were mandated to prioritize repayments to Chinese state-owned firms over its other borrowings.
The contract details also stated that the SGR deal was a twenty-year-old loan with a seven-year grace period, in which Kenya was to repay within 13 years. Within this, at least 42% of the revenue generated from the project was to be used for repayment of the loans leading to the Kenyan government receiving no monetary benefit for a period of at least twenty years up until the Chinese loans were paid off.
The Zambian government too, faced a similar situation leading to political upheaval in the country due to excessive Chinese borrowings. The southern African country has currently sustained excessive debts most of which have been provided by Chinese developmental banks for white elephant projects that has generated under-performing revenues as compared to the cost of construction induced within them.
These excessive loans have now led to the Zambian government pleading its creditors for financial restructuring in debt agreements. Moreover, this had also led to the government cancelling around $1.6 billion worth of undisbursed loans form Chinese lenders causing a further halt to infrastructural projects across the country. Ironically however, China has refused to restructure debt repayments and has on the contrary secured itself guarantees from the Zambian government mandating the country to disburse its repayments first.
These preconditions have also hampered Zambia’s efforts in securing debt relief from its other creditors who have accused Beijing of sabotaging Zambia’s volatile economy in lieu for its own guarantees.
These examples serve as an important reminder to China’s sinister tendencies of colonizing the African continent through neo-imperialistic means. Under the pretext of development, Beijing has deployed all possible colonizing strategies to influence economic outcomes in different countries in the continent with many such countries now having to focus on repayments to China instead of crafting strategies for economic revival.
In light of such detrimental Chinese practices, it far more important and of urgency that other countries learn from the examples of despair faced by its fellow African nations before China comes knocking with excessive financial resources on their own doorsteps.
Hence a collective strategy must be undertaken by all African countries that see themselves under Chinese debt, for they may be Beijing next target.
Source: PML Daily
Jacob Zuma barred from running in election
The former president has been expelled from the ruling ANC and has been campaigning for the newly formed MK party. An MK spokesman said the party will appeal the decision made by the Independent Electoral Commission.
Former South African President Jacob Zuma has been disqualified from running in the country's general elections in May.
The Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) said on Thursday he was one of eight candidates who faced official objections.
"In the case of former president Zuma, yes, we did receive an objection, which has been upheld," IEC chairperson Mosotho Moepya said at a media briefing.
The IEC disqualified him over his 2021 conviction and jailing for contempt of court.
Increasing tensions in the run-up to the polls
Zuma, who led the country from 2009 to 2018 until his removal amid wide-ranging allegations of corruption, parted ways with the ruling African National Congress in December and is now leading the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK).
MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndlhela told the AFP news agency the party " of course will appeal" the IEC's decision.
Some of the party's leaders have previously threatened violence if Zuma was barred from contesting the elections.
Seperately the ANC has launched a legal challenge against Zuma's party, disputing its use of the name and trademark of the dissolved organization.
The MK party is named after the former military wing of the ANC, which was disbanded at the end of apartheid.
MK party can still compete in the vote
The IEC's decision does not prevent the MK party from taking part in the May 29 poll.
It is widely expected to be the most competitive vote since the advent of democracy in South Africa in 1994.
According to recent polls, the ANC may dip below 50% of the national vote for the first time since it came into power.
Zuma's popularity has helped the MK Party gain traction ahead of the upcoming polls, particularly in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal.
45 dead in South Africa bus crash, 8-year-old girl only survivor
Local transportation authority says bus was carrying people to attend Easter weekend church service.
A bus carrying 46 people crashed over a bridge in South Africa, killing everyone on board except an 8-year-old girl, local officials said Thursday.
The accident happened on the Mma Matlakala Bridge between Marken and Mokopane, in the northern province of Limpopo, roughly 320 kilometres north of Johannesburg.
The Limpopo Department of Transportation and Community Safety said, in a statement posted on Facebook, the bus was believed to be carrying people who were travelling to attend an Easter weekend church service in the town of Moira.
According to the statement, it's believe the bus lost control and went over the side of the bridge and plummeted 50 metres below onto a rocky surface and caught on fire.
The child who survived the accident was transported to a nearby hospital to be treated, but details of her condition are unclear.
The bus was registered in the neighbouring country of Botswana, the department said, and officials are working to confirm the citizenship of the victims.
The statement went on to say "some bodies were burned beyond recognition," while others were either trapped in wreckage or scattered nearby.
Source: CBC
